Opinium sees the Tory lead up 10% in a week to 19%. Labour are on course for an absolute hammering if the polls are right

Opinium sees the Tory lead up 10% in a week to 19%. Labour are on course for an absolute hammering if the polls are right

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New @OpiniumResearch Con 45 (+7) Lab 26 (-3) LD 11 (+4) UKIP 9 (-5) Changes since last week. FW 19/20 Aprilhttps://t.co/JDBaJ9a0K2 — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 22, 2017 Since Theresa May announced the general election, we’ve had three polls, with leads of 21%, 24%, and now 19% for the blues. The trend is not Labour’s friend. We might need to come up with a new adjective for  just how rubbish Corbyn is. This poll presages an absolute shellacking for Labour. If…

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The French ban on opinion polls came into effect at midnight with Macron still ahead

The French ban on opinion polls came into effect at midnight with Macron still ahead

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Will that hold good when real voting starts tomorrow morning? France has some very tight laws on opinion polls including a complete ban on then being published on the day before an election. So the Wikipedia chart above represents all the polling that we will see until we get the exit polls tomorrow evening. The young independent, Emmanuel Macron, is still in the lead and has seen it move up just a touch in the final few days. Le Pen…

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Being realistic on the prospects for Lib Dem gains

Being realistic on the prospects for Lib Dem gains

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Alastair Meeks takes a hard look The Lib Dems’ emblem is the liberty bird.  In 2015, it was put on the critically endangered list, found only in eight locations where volunteers toiled night and day to protect it from poachers.  Pundits, including me, gloomily pondered whether extinction was on the cards. It’s a compelling case study how climate change is not necessarily bad for everyone.  In the wake of Brexit, the Lib Dems have found a new purpose as the…

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Now the Electoral Commission orders an investigation into LeaveEU’s referendum finances

Now the Electoral Commission orders an investigation into LeaveEU’s referendum finances

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Independent The Indy is reporting that the Electoral Commission is to launch an investigation into the finances of Leave.EU. “The Electoral Commission has launched an investigation into spending at the European Union referendum by the campaign group Leave.EU, it has announced. The Commission says the investigation will focus on whether the Brexit-supporting campaign took “impermissible” donations and said there were “reasonable grounds to suspect that potential offences” may have been committed by the campaign. A spokesperson for the Commission said:…

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Gloomy local by-election news for LAB in the week a General Election was called

Gloomy local by-election news for LAB in the week a General Election was called

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Blacon on Chester West and Chester (Lab defence, resignation of sitting member) Result: Labour 1,556 (59% +1%), Conservative 574 (22% +4%), Independent 434 (16%, no candidate at last election), Liberal Democrat 70 (3%, no candidate at last election) Labour HOLD with a majority of 982 (37%) on a swing of 1.5% from Lab to Con (notional swing of 1% from Lab to Lib Dem, 0.5% from Lib Dem to Con) Kenton East on Harrow (Lab defence, death of sitting member)…

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Yvette Cooper moves into favourite slot as Corbyn’s successor

Yvette Cooper moves into favourite slot as Corbyn’s successor

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Yvette Cooper now betting favourite to succeed Corbyn pic.twitter.com/H1UNRl2t4R — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 21, 2017 But being the most capable within LAB not always an advantage especially if you are a woman At PMQs on Wednesday there was no doubt about the best intervention from the opposition benches. It was from Yvette Cooper the former cabinet minister and contender in the leadership election after Labour’s defeat in 2015. Her point, questioning the reasons for the election, was strong and…

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This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast on Theresa May’s snap election

This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast on Theresa May’s snap election

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With a snap general election announced, Leo Barasi is joined by Progress deputy editor Conor Pope, and political consultant Laurence Janta-Lipinski, to talk about the state of the parties and the race ahead. The Tories seem to be on course for a guaranteed landslide but does that mean they won’t be able to scare potential voters about a Corbyn government? What policies and arguments can Labour offer to fight back? How far can the Lib Dems go? And is it…

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Two local by-elections tonight – both LAB defences

Two local by-elections tonight – both LAB defences

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Blacon on Chester West and Chester (Lab defence, resignation of sitting member) Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 38, Conservatives 36, Independent 1 (Conservative majority of 1) Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Labour 3,579, 3,349, 3,119 (58%) Conservatives 1,109, 979, 941 (18%) United Kingdom Independence Party 1,054, 1,037, 805 (17%) Green Party 482, 303, 227 (8%) EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 95,455 (49%) LEAVE 98,082 (51%) on a turnout of 75% Candidates duly…

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