The Tories aim to win a landslide by trying to persuade us that Corbyn might win

The Tories aim to win a landslide by trying to persuade us that Corbyn might win

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But if PM Corbyn was such a danger why call the election in the first place? One of the most weird features of this election campaign is that the Conservatives are doing everything they can to try to persuade us that Jeremy Corbyn really is in with a chance of becoming next prime minister. Above is some Conservative publicity material that was featured on BuzzFeed and seeks to make every argument that there is a real risk. It is almost…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Local election debrief, General Election forecasting & public opinion on a Tory landslide

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Local election debrief, General Election forecasting & public opinion on a Tory landslide

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Steve Fisher joins the discussion On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran is joined by Steve Fisher from Oxford University. Steve runs the elections website https://electionsetc.com/ and is part of the team that produces the General Election exit poll. Keiran and Steve discuss the fallout from last week’s local elections. Steve explains how his election forecast did and what the results tell us about the potential outcome of the General Election in June. Keiran and Steve also discuss how the opinion polls…

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Labour holding up better in London where there are fewer UKIP voters for CON to squeeze

Labour holding up better in London where there are fewer UKIP voters for CON to squeeze

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YouGov: LAB vote holding up in London poll. LDs up 6. (Changes on GE2015)LAB 42% -2CON 36% +2LD 14% +6UKIP 6%-2GRN 3% -2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 10, 2017 LDs hoping for gains in the capital There’s a new London poll from YouGov out in the Evening Standard which tells the story of GE2017 in a very different way from what we’d been getting used to. The big national voter movement, as has been widely observed, has been from…

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At 11am the Crown Prosecution Service announces what it is doing about the CON GE2015 expenses investigation

At 11am the Crown Prosecution Service announces what it is doing about the CON GE2015 expenses investigation

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If charges are being bought we need to be ultra careful not to make comments that could prejudice the case It was reported last month that the CPS was looking into cases involving about 30 individuals. This all follows the investigation by Michael Crick of Channel 4 News on election spending in several key marginals at GE2015. Given the proximity of the close of nominations for the June 8th election the CPS appears to be trying to create clarity ahead…

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The poll finding that sums up GE2017 & why it’ll be a CON landslide. 67% of Welsh UKIP voters have moved to CON

The poll finding that sums up GE2017 & why it’ll be a CON landslide. 67% of Welsh UKIP voters have moved to CON

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There is so much General Election polling in coming out at the moment but sometimes it is quite useful just focusing on one small number in a much smaller sampling area. Above is a screenshot of the dataset from the latest Welsh YouGov poll which covers the 40 seats at stake in the Principality on June 8th. My red arrow points to one – the proportion of UKIP voters from the last general election who now say they are switching…

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Ladbrokes make Yvette Cooper 3/1 favourite to succeed Corbyn following a flurry of bets on her

Ladbrokes make Yvette Cooper 3/1 favourite to succeed Corbyn following a flurry of bets on her

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But is Jez going to go quietly after the Tory landslide? There has been a trend on the Labour leadership betting markets in the last couple of days which has seen Yvette Cooper establish herself as the firm favourite to succeed Jeremy Corbyn. She’s had some fairly confident performances and was the one person who really shook TMay at PMQs before the Parliament was dissolved. I’m not rushing into back however although U believe she will be by a long…

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Macron’s first big decision – choosing his Prime Minister. Chris from Paris looks at the betting

Macron’s first big decision – choosing his Prime Minister. Chris from Paris looks at the betting

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On the previous thread Chris from Paris gave his views on who Macron is going to choose as his first Prime Minister. Betffair has just got a market up. These are Chris’s views with the numbers being the Betfair price when he posted. Pascal Lamy 10.0 : ok price, a bit low: Lamy has a great international profile but pretty unlikely PM as he has never been either a MP or a minister – Le Drian 7.2 : the price…

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