LDs now down ten seats on the Commons spread markets since the campaign started

LDs now down ten seats on the Commons spread markets since the campaign started

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GE2017 seat spreads from @SportingIndex . CON 396-401LAB 152-158LD 16-19UKIP 0.1-1GRN 1-2SNP 44-47 https://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 … … … … — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 8, 2017 Latest Spreadex Commons seats spreadsCON 395-41LAB 152-158LD 16-19UKIP 0.1-1GRN 0.75-1.75SNP 44-47https://t.co/m9B2DFvQv3 … … … … — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 8, 2017 The biggest loser on the betting markets since the election was called have been the Lib Dems. The opening prices were at 26 to 29 seats following the widespread assumption that the party…

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The tide is high. How many Labour MPs will be holding on after 8 June?

The tide is high. How many Labour MPs will be holding on after 8 June?

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Embed from Getty Images Everyone seems to agree: Labour are in for a pummelling at the upcoming general election.  The opinion polls, the local election results and the anonymous comments from politicians of all parties on the campaign trail all point in the same direction. Even the newspaper pundits, constantly looking for a new angle, are unanimously predicting a Conservative landslide.  Few, however, have tried to put numbers on the eventual outcome. This fool is going to rush in.  I’ve…

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Macron ends up doing even better than the exit polls

Macron ends up doing even better than the exit polls

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New York Times graphic His victory was almost two to one In the immediate aftermath of the first round two weeks ago I wrote here that the final outcome was nearest thing to an absolute certainty you could have and I bet accordingly. There was no way I could see, during the final phase of the campaign that Le Pen could win given the sheer size of the opinion polls gap. The polls had been dead on for the first…

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Macron wins by an estimated 65.5% to 34.5%

Macron wins by an estimated 65.5% to 34.5%

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The powers of the French President France will shortly elect a new president, but what powers will Emmanuel Macron or Marine Le Pen have if they win? #Presidentielle2017 pic.twitter.com/W8EoSvQgMY — AFP News Agency (@AFP) May 7, 2017 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Labour’s Brexit dilemma: the right policy led by the wrong people? Plus Kasich 2020 rumours

Labour’s Brexit dilemma: the right policy led by the wrong people? Plus Kasich 2020 rumours

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Despite Labour voters support for a second referendum on EU membership, the party’s support for Brexit is probably the right policy writes Keiran Pedley. The Conservatives are vulnerable if Theresa May cannot negotiate a deal but not if Labour looks ‘pro-Brussels’. As June the 8th rapidly approaches, many have criticised the Labour Party’s approach to Brexit. With the Prime Minister solidly in favour of a so-called ‘hard Brexit’ and the Liberal Democrats the unapologetic party of Remain, Labour has seemed…

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Terms of Endearment

Terms of Endearment

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Embed from Getty Images   “Tain’t What You Do (It’s The Way That You Do It) sang Ella.  “That’s what gets results.”  A lesson the EU and the British government might usefully tattoo on their respective foreheads as they embark on post-Article 50 negotiations.  Or try to.  Nine months on from the referendum and two months since Article 50 was formally triggered, both the EU and Britain are still shouting at each other in a way familiar to divorce lawyers…

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Is Theresa May planning on toppling Tim Farron?

Is Theresa May planning on toppling Tim Farron?

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https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/860412293145923584 Could Tim Farron losing his seat be the shock of June 8th? I found the above tweet fascinating, Jim Waterson of Buzzfeed analysed which seats the Tories are targeting by looking at the ad buys in local newspapers. The one that caught my attention was Westmorland and Lonsdale, the constituency of Tim Farron. The symbolism of Tim Farron, the arch remainer and and advocate of another referendum, losing his seat on June 8th would  be yet another blow to…

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Tonight’s polling round up and why Corbyn doesn’t have Labour’s best interests at heart

Tonight’s polling round up and why Corbyn doesn’t have Labour’s best interests at heart

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New @ORB_Int poll for The Sunday Telegraph Con 46 (+4) Lab 31 (nc) LD 9 (-1) UKIP 8 (nc) https://t.co/zkP1tzQcEc — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 6, 2017 Westminster voting intention: CON: 46% (-1)LAB: 30% (-)LDEM: 9% (+1)UKIP: 7% (-)GRN: 2% (-1) (via @OpiniumResearch / 02 – 03 May) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) May 6, 2017 Westminster voting intention: CON: 47% (-1)LAB: 28% (-1)LDEM: 11% (+1)UKIP: 6% (+1) (via YouGov) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) May 6, 2017 By @ShippersUnbound in tomorrow's @thesundaytimes….

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