There is so much General Election polling in coming out at the moment but sometimes it is quite useful just focusing on one small number in a much smaller sampling area.
Above is a screenshot of the dataset from the latest Welsh YouGov poll which covers the 40 seats at stake in the Principality on June 8th.
My red arrow points to one – the proportion of UKIP voters from the last general election who now say they are switching to the Conservatives.
At the 2015 general election 13.6% of Welsh voters went for UKIP. So two thirds of them now saying they are voting conservative represents a very significant shift and is the big driver behind the huge change in Welsh politics that we have seen.
In the previous Welsh YouGov poll commissioned by Professor Roger Scully of Cardiff University the proportion of UKIP voters who were moving to CON was 63%. So today’s poll suggests that that is staying and might be getting bigger.
At the last election the Welsh seats split LB 25 CON 11, PC 3 and LD one. Maybe the blues could be top party in Wales on June 8th