New Survation phone poll for GMB sees TMay’s party’s lead down to 1.1%

New Survation phone poll for GMB sees TMay’s party’s lead down to 1.1%

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Unlike virtually every other pollster Survation reports its finding down to one decimal point and the latest phone poll for Good Morning Britain shows the significance of this. With normal rounding it would be a 2% CON lead when the actual margin is 1.1% The figures: CON 41.5% LAB 40.4% LD 6% UKIP 3%. Without rounding the figures are – CON 42% (-5); LAB 40% (+10); LD 6% (-2); UKIP 3% (-1); Others 9% (-2) There’s been a dearth of…

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A Labour view as the campaign draws to a close

A Labour view as the campaign draws to a close

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The prospect of a landslide’s now being averted I was an eye witness to the last terror attack in London on March 24th. As walked into New Palace Yard at Westminster on that afternoon I heard one of the shots that killed Khalid Masood and saw him and his victim PC Keith Archer laying on the cobbles, before I was ushered indoors by security staff. . The following day in the Commons I was impressed at the way both Theresa…

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Punters stick with the ICM/ComRes view of the election – not YouGov/Survation

Punters stick with the ICM/ComRes view of the election – not YouGov/Survation

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If the gamblers are right then it’s a 70+ CON majority Two new lots of polling data out so far today reflecting the two sides of the polling divide that characterises GE2017. The latest ICM, with its post-GE2015 turnout model has CON with a 11% lead which would see TMay meet her goal of having an increased majority. The YouGov model continues to have the lead at just 4% and seat projections suggesting that the Tories will be 20 seats…

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GE2017 heralds the return of two party politics

GE2017 heralds the return of two party politics

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Alastair Meeks looks at the betting implications What to make of the polling?  Are the Conservatives out of sight or are we in hung Parliament territory?  Everyone has their own theory and many of them are contradictory.  I’m not proposing in this thread to go into the question of whether the young or previous non-voters are going to unleash a crimson tide.  This is fast becoming a question of theology rather than psephology, at least until Thursday. There are other…

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The polling that should worry Mrs May and all Tories

The polling that should worry Mrs May and all Tories

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Comparing May's lead over Corbyn with @IpsosMORI's net satisfaction ratings compare with Cameron's lead over EdM 1 week before the election pic.twitter.com/Qn8CVeQQUE — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 4, 2017 Mrs May has picked the worst time for her ratings to crater With polls ranging from a Tory lead of 1% to 12%, and recent polling failures, it is wise to look at the various satisfaction/well/badly leadership ratings  because they (coupled with best/most trusted on the economy) have consistently predicted the winner…

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NEW Bonus PB/Polling Matters podcast: Reviewing the weekend’s polls

NEW Bonus PB/Polling Matters podcast: Reviewing the weekend’s polls

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On a bonus episode of the PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran is joined by Ben Walker from Britainelects.com to discuss the weekend’s polls as the campaign enters the final week. Ben is part of a team of students that run the Britain Elects twitter account and website that collects polling data and local election results. It’s an invaluable tool now followed by more than 129,000 people on twitter. A real accomplishment and it was a pleasure to have Ben on. Listen to the…

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Whilst it is understandable national campaigning has been suspended, the general election must not be suspended

Whilst it is understandable national campaigning has been suspended, the general election must not be suspended

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May spokesmn: "Conservative party will not be campaigning nationally today. We will review as day goes on &as more details of attack emerge" — Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) June 4, 2017 Calls for General Election to be suspended after second major terror attack within two weeks #LondonAttack https://t.co/fn6mDPuhqU — The Telegraph (@Telegraph) June 4, 2017 After last night’s appalling attack in London, the Tories and the SNP have suspended their national campaigns, and the other parties are set to follow suit,…

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UPDATED Tonight’s polls range from ComRes 12% CON lead to Survation’s 1%

UPDATED Tonight’s polls range from ComRes 12% CON lead to Survation’s 1%

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It a massive night of polls with the election just five days away. So far we’ve had four: Opinium/Observer was Con 43%-2 LAB 37%+2 LD 6%-1 UKIP 5%= ComRes online for Indy/S Mirror CON 47%+1 LAB 35% +1, LD 8%= , UKIP 4%= Survation online MoS CON 40%-6 LAB 39% +5 LD 8%= UKIP 5% Orb for Telegraph CON 45+1 LAB 36-2 LD 8 (+1) UKIP 4 (-1) YouGov S Times CON 42%= LAB: 38%-1 LD 9%+2 UKIP: 4%= ICM/Sun…

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