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Mrs May’s Italian job could see Boris quit

14/9/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Downing Street puts Boris on "flounce-watch"https://t.co/tHZSpfJQBR — Francis Elliott (@elliottengage) September 14, 2017 You’re only supposed to blow the bloody doors off Mrs May, not lose your Foreign Secretary. Overnight it was revealed that Mrs May will give a speech in Florence a week on Friday. The Telegraph says [she will] set out her vision of post-Brexit Britain in her most important speech about the EU since January. Downing Street announced that the Prime Minister would speak in Italy on Friday,…

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Porn in the U.S.A.

14/9/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

I’ve always felt the topics of the betting markets are an indicator of how parties, governments, and leaders are doing. This market by the famously publicity shy bookmaker Paddy Power sums up the Trump Presidency, this is the sort of market I’d expect to see about Silvio Berlusconi, if a Trump Presidency was going well, we wouldn’t get a market like this. With Russian politicians openly boasting they have compromising information on Trump and Russian intelligence stole the American Presidency…

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Why the Corbynite candidate might not win the Scottish Labour Leadership

13/9/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Why the Labour centrists stand a better chance in Scotland – @chris__curtis looks at Scottish Labour's membership https://t.co/WJtd00qpQ2 — YouGov (@YouGov) September 13, 2017 1/ For a start, Scottish Labour members are more centrist than Labour party members in England and Wales https://t.co/WJtd00qpQ2 pic.twitter.com/hTNXaEwrQJ — YouGov (@YouGov) September 13, 2017 2/ Scottish Labour saw less of an influx of new members following the 2015 general election… https://t.co/WJtd00qpQ2 pic.twitter.com/Mg4m5XkLWI — YouGov (@YouGov) September 13, 2017 3/ …this is in part because…

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Betting on what Trump will be impeached for

13/9/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Paddy Power have a market up on if Trump were to be impeached, what that reason would be. I’m sitting out this market for a variety of reasons, mostly because the options in this market are so few, and doesn’t cover the ‘High crimes and misdemeanors’ scenario in Section 4 of Article II of the United States Constitution that allows for a President to be impeached. With a Russian politician openly admitting at the weekend that ‘American intelligence missed it when Russian intelligence…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast – Hurricanes, Trump’s approval rating, the EU withdrawal bill & Tory attempts to woo young voters

12/9/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran rounds up the latest political news and polling analysis from the US and the UK. This week’s episode is a solo effort due to a last minute cancellation by a guest, so Keiran takes the reins alone in a shorter than usual show. Following his return from the States, Keiran takes you through the latest US political news including a slight uptick in Trump’s approval rating following Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma….

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Looking at the UKIP leadership race

12/9/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Matthew Shaddick (Shadsy) of Ladbrokes on the UKIP leadership race. This year’s running of the UKIP leadership race might not have attracted all that much attention, but it’s probably one of the most open and unpredictable party leader elections I can remember. Of the seven candidates left, six have a plausible shot at winning and there could be plenty of betting value around. Long time favourite Peter Whittle looks a very shaky front-runner. Once as short as 2/5, he’s now…

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Two years ago some Tories voted for Corbyn to become Labour leader to destroy the Labour party, you’ll never guess what happened next

12/9/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Happy second anniversary as Labour leader Mr Corbyn, a man who continues to defy expectations. Today is the second anniversary of Jeremy Corbyn becoming Labour leader, very few people could have imagined how things have turned out. Back in 2015 many observers, including myself, thought if Jeremy Corbyn led the Labour party at a general election, Labour would play the role of Alderaan to the Tory party’s Death Star. But at 10pm on June 8th 2017 all those perceptions changed….

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Understanding the minds of punters

11/9/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

YouGov have published some fascinating insights into punters, YouGov say YouGov Profiles data allows us to explore the mindset of those who gamble at least once a week with a bookmaker – either online or in shop. The data shows that while there are some clear distinctions between more traditional in-store bettors and those who gamble digitally, there are also a number of shared characteristics. As one would imagine those that use a traditional instore bookmaker are likely to be older…

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