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Germany: a predictable election?

7/9/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Graphic: The most recent German polling, further details available here On the face of it, the German elections are remarkably unexciting. Chancellor Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) has been leading in the polls ever since the last election, and her only serious challenger, Martin Schulz of the Social Democrats (SP), has fallen back after an early bounce. Four other parties are competing for third place: the free-market liberals (FDP), the ex-Communist Left (Linke), the Greens and the anti-immigrant AfD. The current…

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How Kim Jong-un makes Sir Michael Fallon Prime Minister

7/9/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Because of a quarrel in a far away country between people of whom we know nothing, we once again could see a new Prime Minister. I’m not going to pretend I’m an expert on affairs on the Korean peninsula, my knowledge is pretty much based on the excellent book by Sir Max Hastings on The Korean War and what I have learned from the media. But if matters do escalate for a full blown (nuclear) war there then we will…

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The next out of the cabinet betting

6/9/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Earlier on this week The Times reported that Sir Patrick McLoughlin, the party chairman, is understood to be keen to stand down after staying on to help to steady the ship after June’s disastrous election. He could be replaced by Boris Johnson, with senior sources suggesting that Mrs May’s patience with the foreign secretary is wearing thin. If this story is true then you might be interested in taking the 10/1 on him being next out of the cabinet, however I…

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If Russia really has compromising material against Trump and planning to use it then there’s a few bets that need considering

6/9/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Please not the footage of Trump and peeing hookers. I DON'T WANT TO WRITE THAT ARTICLE.https://t.co/b3P5IdzMSO — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 5, 2017 The Independent along with many other outlets is reporting A Russian politician has threatened to “hit Donald Trump with our Kompromat” on state TV. Speaking on Russia-24, Nikita Isaev, leader of the far-right New Russia Movement, said the compromising material should be released in retaliation over the closure of several Russian diplomatic compounds across the US. When asked whether Russia…

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The evening must read

5/9/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Must read by ConHome's @wallaceme on what went wrong with the CON GE17 campaign. In 2 words "totally unprepared" https://t.co/OIecudAySo — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 5, 2017 Today Conservative Home have published the first of three magna opera on the 2017 Conservative general election campaign which saw Mrs May squander David Cameron’s hard won majority. Once all three have been published, I plan to do a more detailed thread on them. This excerpt from today’s piece confirms the fears many…

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How the Tories are still paying the price for Cameron’s failure to win a majority in 2010

5/9/2017 MikeSmithson Comments 0 Comment

The coalition concessions continue to shape Britain’s politics On May 11th 2010, my birthday as it happens, David Cameron was able to enter Downing Street even though he’d failed to win a majority as a result of the coalition deal with Nick Clegg’s Lib Dems. Two aspects of the Tory concessions required to make that happen are still very much in place – the Fixed-Term Term Parliament Act and the doubling of the number of LD members of the House…

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Don’t EU want me?

5/9/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

YouGov have released some pan-European polling when it comes to how some of our EU allies would view us remaining in the EU. YouGov note New YouGov Eurotrack data reveals that it is not just the British public that want the UK to leave the European Union; French people want Brexit, too. A plurality of people in France say they would rather that Britain left the EU than stayed in it (38% to 32%). Of the six EU nations surveyed, only in…

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ConHome members’ survey finds just 36% wanting TMay to lead party at next election

4/9/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Our survey. Over half of Party member respondents think May should quit as leader before 2022. https://t.co/jVsJ3RQYVy — Paul Goodman (@PaulGoodmanCH) September 4, 2017 The build up to the Tory conference In the six days since TMay’s “not a quitter” assertion there have been several different surveys of different groups as to how they view the woman who lost the party its majority carrying on in the job right up to the next general election. The latest from CONHome of…

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