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It’s Mueller time

29/10/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Exclusive: A federal grand jury has approved the first charges in the investigation led by special counsel Mueller https://t.co/ZVvg1WCjMs pic.twitter.com/fXsVZUILni — CNN (@CNN) October 28, 2017 JUST IN: Office of the Special Counsel will serve up an indictment Monday in connection with Russia probe, an official confirms to NBC News — NBC News (@NBCNews) October 28, 2017 Important news for those of us betting on whether Trump will be impeached or serve a full term CNN reported in the early…

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Concerned about Brexit/Trump/Catalonia/Etc? A special message from Marf

28/10/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Just keep saying “Everything’s going to be alright Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

From what Davis said, we need to think about a Limbo Brexit

28/10/2017 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

If talks go down to the wire, ratification will go beyond them Brexits are like fairies. There are good ones, bad ones and if you say it with enough feeling, they might not exist at all. What we haven’t heard much of so far – though given David Davis’ comments at the Select Committee this week, we should have done – is the Limbo Brexit. What is that, you might ask. In a somewhat numerically-challenged observation, Davis claimed that a…

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Month by month during 2017 how the “Leaving EU right” lead has moved in YouGov’s Brexit tracker

27/10/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

There’s a new YouGov poll out which has LAB retaining its 2 points lead over CON. The survey also included the firm’s regular trackers on opinion in relation to Brexit. In broad terms this has Brexit right at 43% (up 1) with Brexit wrong at 45% (same) so really not much change. The big picture is seen in the chart above – the nation remains broadly divided with the monthly average “right to leave” lead for only the second month…

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The next PM could be someone who is opposed to women who’ve been raped having abortions

27/10/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Jacob Rees-Mogg says that women who seek abortion after rape are committing a “second wrong” – @zoe_beaty https://t.co/MI1uVvpCUX pic.twitter.com/piinX3n3fN — thepooluk (@thepooluk) October 26, 2017 The Pool If Rees-Mogg goes for it abortion will dominate the campaign Jacob Rees-Mogg continues to feature strongly in the betting for next CON leader and next PM. He’s third favourite for the former and fourth favourite for the latter, The latest Betfair trades in both markets make him a 10% chance. There’s no doubt…

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LAB’s GE17 candidate selection process makes it look amateurish, sloppy and is damaging

26/10/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

This story by @MrHarryCole requires a lot of mind bleach.https://t.co/8E6cBX4INm — TSE (@TSEofPB) October 26, 2017 Another day and more O’Mara revelations come out All parties, including the Tories, were taken by surprise when Mrs May returned from her walking holiday in Snowdonia in April and announced that in spite of previous assurances that she wouldn’t go to the country before 2020 she was calling a general election. But the date was set for more than seven weeks later which…

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“TEN COMMANDMENTS” poll finds LD voters most relaxed about murder with Leavers least concerned about lying

26/10/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

It’s YouGov’s cross-breaks which caught my attention That’s all fine but dataset from YouGov, helpfully, includes party and Brexit cross-breaks so we can see if there are any particular distinctions for different parts of the electorate. Although the sub-sample size for the LDs is small the fact that they are strikingly out of line on murder and and stealing to be worth highlighting. The same goes for Leave voters who seemed more relaxed about adultery and telling lies. Have fun…

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Fox News poll: Trump’s Republicans facing big set-backs in 2018 mid-terms

26/10/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Fox News has the Democrats leading by 15 points for 2018 mid-terms Trump's first big electoral test https://t.co/H2f1GtXdbJ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2017 By far the biggest elections next year look set be the US midterms in November when Donald Trump will face his first major electoral test. Currently his Republican Party has majorities in both the Senate and the House and his ability to act could be impeded if one or both of these are lost. New…

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