— The Pool (@thepooluk) October 26, 2017
If Rees-Mogg goes for it abortion will dominate the campaign
Jacob Rees-Mogg continues to feature strongly in the betting for next CON leader and next PM. He’s third favourite for the former and fourth favourite for the latter, The latest Betfair trades in both markets make him a 10% chance.
There’s no doubt that he’s become a big media figure and comes over very strongly – something that is helped by his lack of equivocation on the big issues of the day. JRM doesn’t hide potentially controversial positions behind smart drafting.
There has never been a members’ leadership election to replace a sitting PM. Gordon Brown succeeded by coronation and TMay took over from Cameron when Andrea Leadsom, who’d come second in the MPs ballot, pulled out following her controversial comments having an advantage of Mrs. May because she was a mother..
The widespread assumption is that TMay will stand down or be forced out well before the next general election so we could be moving into a CON membership ballot to choose the next PM.
If Rees-Mogg runs then inevitably his very strong view on abortion will figure very strongly. How this will go down with his parliamentary colleagues and Tory members I don’t know. My guess is that it would be an net negative for the Tories in a general election.