What makes people proud to be British by party and Brexit choice

What makes people proud to be British by party and Brexit choice

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Why the NHS is so politically sensitive The above YouGov polling sets out clearly how important the NHS and the memory of what Britain did during the war are central to national identity. The party splits are not that large and underpin the approach of all parties with the exception of UKIP whose former leader, Mr Farage, made controversial comments about the NHS a few days ago that were picked up and Tweeted up by Trump. Smart politicians shouldn’t attack…

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What the proposed new boundaries would mean if Britain voted as in latest ICM poll

What the proposed new boundaries would mean if Britain voted as in latest ICM poll

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The Electoral Calculus projection based on proposed boundaries And the Electoral Calculus projection on current boundaries Over the next couple of years the boundaries review is going to become a major issue. The final proposals are almost there and to show the effect of them I have taken a projection, based on yesterday’s ICM poll, from Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus based on the old boundaries and compared them with the new. As can be seen the Conservatives do better with…

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Remember this cringe making TMay effort from GE17?

Remember this cringe making TMay effort from GE17?

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Big mistake for LAB to assume that the Tories will be piss-poor again If any CON MPs is still deciding whether or not to send Graham Brady a letter then they should check the above TMay “news conference” from the closing stages of the GE2017 campaign. This is really awful and just about sums up her awkwardness, inability to think on her feet and the struggle she has answering questions from the media – qualities that are so important for…

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The little CON polling flurry has come at a bad time for the leadership plotters

The little CON polling flurry has come at a bad time for the leadership plotters

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Ideally they need LAB moving forward across the board We are living in a time when much of the talk at Westminster continues to be how many CON MPs have written to Graham Brady, 1922 Committee chair, asking for a vote of confidence to be held on Mrs. May. Once he’s received 48 of these Brady has to immediately set up a leadership ballot. The last time the process was invoked MPs were voting within 24 hours. My guess is…

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Jon Trickett – Labour’s man to sort out the outsourcing mess?

Jon Trickett – Labour’s man to sort out the outsourcing mess?

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Don Brind on the politics of the post-Carrilion world When Jon Trickett was leader of the Leeds City Council in the early 90s he had a regular Friday date with finance department officials. He got them to bring along every bill the council had paid that week. He then pulled out at random a number of bills to prompt a discussion on whether the ratepayers had got value for money from suppliers. “I hate waste” declares Trickett and his hands-on…

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New poll highlights the danger for Corbyn if LAB is perceived as being pro-Brexit

New poll highlights the danger for Corbyn if LAB is perceived as being pro-Brexit

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It also suggests a way back for the LDs The Stop Brexit pressure group Our Future Our Choice has published a YouGov poll it commissioned which suggests that LAB’s poll rating could drop from 39% to 30% if it goes into the next election backing or having backed Brexit. The big dangers comes from the very same group of voters who were behind the party’s better than expected performance at GE2017 – those under 40. It finds that 73% of…

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Marginal improvements. Looking at the reliability of seat predictions from polls

Marginal improvements. Looking at the reliability of seat predictions from polls

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Last week, Mike Smithson noted the Conservatives seem to have an in-built advantage in the electoral system over Labour – if they got an equal number of votes, the Conservatives could expect about 15 seats more than Labour even if Labour had a 0.5% lead in the polls, if Electoral Calculus is to be believed. That begs the question whether seats are likely to move consistently at the next election in the way that seat predictors assume. Let’s have a…

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Moggy ousts Jezza as next PM betting favourite

Moggy ousts Jezza as next PM betting favourite

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The father of 6 who has never changed a nappy now a 16% chance – Corbyn 14% Over the weekend there has been a big change on the next prime minister betting market on Betfair. The long-standing favourite since the general election, Mr Corbyn, has now slipped to second place behind Jacob Rees-Mogg who is attracting a lot of betting support at the moment for both the CON leadership and the next occupant of Number 10. Rees-Mogg has been the…

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