The Tory Brexit divide is in the cabinet – the LAB one is between the leadership & party supporters

The Tory Brexit divide is in the cabinet – the LAB one is between the leadership & party supporters

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We’ve heard a lot in the past few days about the arguments inside the cabinet between the rival factions over the form of Brexit that individual ministers want. How that will turn out is far from clear and whether it will be the Philip Hammond or the Boris Johnson approach that prevails. Clearly because they are not the government there is much less focus on the LAB Brexit divide between the bulk of party supporters and the leadership. That could…

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If not May, then who?

If not May, then who?

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Assessing the runners and riders of the next Tory leadership contest Correctly identifying the next Conservative leader is a notoriously tricky task. While the golden rule is to lay the favourite – something which can accumulate good profits over a prolonged period – it’s still quite a cautious strategy. The more ambitious, but much more difficult, one is to try to back the winner. That’s not to say that it’s impossible and now that the latest bout of speculation over…

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Eight months on from GE17 how LAB doing is performing in the polls compared with earlier main opposition parties at the same stage

Eight months on from GE17 how LAB doing is performing in the polls compared with earlier main opposition parties at the same stage

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David Cowling, the leading election analyst and former head of BBC political research, has produced an excellent paper which asks the question of why Corbyn’s Labour is not doing better in the polls. The response that is coming from the party to recent surveys is to refer back to the polling what happened on June 8th and the fact that party did better than most, though not all, of the surveys on the day itself. The concluding part of the…

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Five CON holds & a gain + one LAB hold in this week’s local by-elections

Five CON holds & a gain + one LAB hold in this week’s local by-elections

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Hartside on Eden (Con defence) Result: Con 175 (53% -4% on last time) , Ind 98 (30% -13% on last time) , Green 58 (18%, no candidate last time) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 77 (13%) on a swing of 4.5% from Ind to Con Codsall on Staffordshire (Con defence) Result: Con 1,274 (68% -7% on last time), Green 329 (17% +6% on last time), Lab 283 (15% +1% on last time) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 945…

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What LAB has not factored in is that TMay’s successor will get a huge polling boost and won’t surely be as bad

What LAB has not factored in is that TMay’s successor will get a huge polling boost and won’t surely be as bad

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Great news for the Tories from @StephenKB Team Corbyn is complacent about the polls & thinks that next time will be like last time https://t.co/XrhciDtzI7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 8, 2018 A new CON leader will be a very different proposition for Corbyn The New Statesman’s Stephen Bush has an excellent piece linked to above on how the red team is viewing their little polling hiccup. It is staggeringly complacent with some in the party, apparently, believing that because…

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Those from elite schools continue to dominate the betting to succeed state-educated Theresa

Those from elite schools continue to dominate the betting to succeed state-educated Theresa

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It is perhaps worth remembering that for a 40 year period, until David Cameron was elected, the Tories made a point of choosing as leaders those who were from more humble backgrounds. So general election winners Heath, Thatcher, and Major all went to state schools – the latter not even going to university. How things look so differently now as we contemplate who will succeed TMay who went to what is now a comprehensive near Oxford. Rees-Mogg and Johnson, first…

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Theresa’s Tories take a 4 point lead with YouGov – their best position in any poll since GE2017

Theresa’s Tories take a 4 point lead with YouGov – their best position in any poll since GE2017

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Times Maybe Corbyn’s LAB is paying the price for its Brexit ambivalence Threre’s a new YouGov poll in today’s Times that sees a dramatic move to the Tories. The figures are with comparisons on last week: CON 43%+1 LAB 39-3 LD 8+2 As can be seen this has been driven by LAB losing vote share – three points – with the Tories up 1 and Cable’s LDs up 2. Also in the poll TMay extended her lead over Corbyn to…

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