Tick tock. Betting on the date of the UK’s exit from the EU

Tick tock. Betting on the date of the UK’s exit from the EU

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Is it going to be March 29 next year? Can you hear it? That is the sound of inevitability. Shambolic though the government’s preparations have been for Brexit, failing to explain its proposals to the public, the EU or even itself, the time to exit continues to approach. When the government gave notice under Article 50, a two year timetable was set in motion. That will expire at 11pm (GMT) on Friday 29 March 2019. Nothing the government has done…

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Quantifying the great cultural divide: those wanting blunt leaders versus those who think you shouldn’t cause offence

Quantifying the great cultural divide: those wanting blunt leaders versus those who think you shouldn’t cause offence

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There’s some new polling just out by YouGov for the latest Prospect Magazine which appears to identify and quantify a divide amongst voters based on a series of questions that I don’t recall being asked in this form before. The one that is most telling is where voters were asked what they preferred in a leader. Overall 45% preferred “politicians who spoke bluntly, without worrying about who they offend,” against 38% who opted for a leader who “spoke carefully” to…

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The day of the husky?

The day of the husky?

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Picture credit : WWF One of David Cameron’s early and later much-derided moves was to go to the Arctic to be seen hugging a husky: I hope it won’t be seen as partisan to say that few of us felt that Cameron had a deep-seated love of huskies: we were all clear that it was symbolic. He was detoxifying the Tories – not just about harsh efficiency, but caring about the environment too. Ultimately, though, the environment was seen as…

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Betting on who will be Philip Hammond’s successor

Betting on who will be Philip Hammond’s successor

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Why Mrs May might replace her Chancellor with someone who appeals to the hardline Leavers in her party. It is well known that many hardline Leavers want Philip Hammond sacked as Chancellor, I can see certainly envisage a scenario where Mrs May sacks Mr Hammond to save her own skin. To paraphrase Jeremy Thorpe, greater love hath no woman than this, that she lay down her friends for her life. Plus Mrs May appears not to be very keen on Philip…

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Amber Rudd now clear third favourite in the CON leader betting

Amber Rudd now clear third favourite in the CON leader betting

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JRM 18%..Bojo 10%..Rudd 8%..Gove 6%..Hunt & Raab 5%..Davidson & Williamson 3% However you look at the next Conservative leadership betting there’s one thing that is probably not going to happen – that the two men heading the betting at the moment, old Etonians Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg, are going to be fighting each other in the membership ballot which, of course, is of the two who top the secret ballot of party MPs. BoJo and Moggsy, I’d suggest will…

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Lib Dems can do it on a drizzly Thursday in February – but what about on 3 May?

Lib Dems can do it on a drizzly Thursday in February – but what about on 3 May?

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By-election gains may well be yet another false dawn Up until last year, Sunderland had carved out for itself one, and only one, niche in British political life: it counted its votes at general elections faster than anywhere else. For six successive elections from 1992 to 2015, the southern Sunderland seat was the first to declare in the country. Other than that, the city was politically unremarkable: it’s returned two Labour MPs ever since the 1960s and the Red team…

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UK Special Elections Super Thursday 1 : February 15th 2018

UK Special Elections Super Thursday 1 : February 15th 2018

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Higham Ferrers on Northamptonshire (Con defence) Result: Con 1,414 (57% -3% on last time), Lab 557 (22% +3% on last time), Lib Dem 336 (13% +2% on last time), UKIP 109 (4% -6% on last time), Green 81 (3%, no candidate last time) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 857 (35%) on a swing of 3% from Con to Lab Higham Ferrers, Lancaster on East Northamptonshire (Con defence) Result: Con 611 (56%), Lib Dem 244 (22%), Lab 189 (17%), Green…

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After last week’s shock YouGov 4% CON lead LAB edges back ahead

After last week’s shock YouGov 4% CON lead LAB edges back ahead

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New YouGov poll has LAB back in the leadCON 40% -2LAB 41%+3LD 8%=UKIP 4%+1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2018 And the female split is with the red team once again Unlike last week which had big move to CON amongst women latest YouGov has females leading LAB by 8%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2018 One of the things that always seems to happen is that when a shock poll comes out it that people try to…

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