Boundary conditions. How Brexit might be helping to lay the ground for the SNP

Boundary conditions. How Brexit might be helping to lay the ground for the SNP

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Some international boundaries are easy to understand. The Pyrenees form a natural frontier between Spain and France. The Kattegat conveniently separates Sweden and Denmark. While in the past each pair of countries has seen their border shift over time, the current resting place looks very natural. The boundary between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland does not come in that category. There are few obvious natural boundaries along the route. Donegal is almost cut off from the rest of…

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Get ready for one of the biggest local by-election nights in years

Get ready for one of the biggest local by-election nights in years

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Big night of local elections in prospect. 14 seats with nearly 90k eligible to vote. Excellent here from @andrewteale https://t.co/AyLxTgrRGX — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 15, 2018 Will tonight’s results reinforce polls view of a shift to CON? The 14 seats in almost all parts of the country feature 7 CON defences; 4 LAB ones + UKIP, SNP & a local Residents’s group a seat apiece. So we are like to get a relatively good picture. It is highly unusual…

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On the biggest current political betting market Trump now given a 64% chance of survival

On the biggest current political betting market Trump now given a 64% chance of survival

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Trump amazing powers to distract are stopping bad news taking hold With all the focus on Brexit and Theresa May’s survival in the UK it is sometimes easy to forget that from a political betting point of view the big markets are in the US and particularly on whether Donald Trump survives his first term. We’ve not looked at this for some time but as the chart above shows the price, on Betfair, have moved quite sharply in his favour…

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Moggy moves to his highest betting level yet for next CON leader following negative reaction to BoJo’s Brexit speech

Moggy moves to his highest betting level yet for next CON leader following negative reaction to BoJo’s Brexit speech

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You can get better odds on JRM as next PM I’ve not bet on Moggy for next CON leader because I still don’t think that he’d get to the final membership ballot round of a leadership contest. As the chart show he’s now soared on the Betfair exchange. The other big question mark is whether there will be an early contest and that is far from clear especially given current CON poll ratings and TMay’s huge resilience. She is still…

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EU/Europe: The issue that’s cost the last 3 CON PMs their jobs. Will TMay be next?

EU/Europe: The issue that’s cost the last 3 CON PMs their jobs. Will TMay be next?

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Britain's interest in Europe appears to rise (and fall) when the Conservatives are in (and out) of government. @ipsosmori pic.twitter.com/DKlfcFIepI — Alistair McQueen (@HelloMcQueen) February 14, 2018 Polls show that concerns about Europe/EU are linked to whether the Tories are in power or not I like the above chart which makes a strong point that the EU becomes an issue amongst voters when the Tories are in power. The data comes from the Ipsos-MORI Issues Index in which those sampled…

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On the day of BoJo’s big Brexit speech the TMay successor betting edges further to an Etonian, but not the Foreign Secretary

On the day of BoJo’s big Brexit speech the TMay successor betting edges further to an Etonian, but not the Foreign Secretary

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Betdata.io Moggy is still dazzling the markets I had a thought before the Foreign Secretary’s big Brexit speech that there might be a case for putting a small amount on him on Betfair’s next Conservative leader market. Generally betting can respond to news coverage and clearly Mr Johnson is going to get a lot of that today. Only problem, looking at the chart, is that what betting movement there has been has not gone to Mr Johnson but to Mr…

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Poll shows Leave voters would stay mostly solid even if Brexit hurts economy, their finances and the NHS

Poll shows Leave voters would stay mostly solid even if Brexit hurts economy, their finances and the NHS

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Above in the chart is a new BMG poll which seeks to ascertain the attitudes of Leave voters to negative aspects of Brexit. It was commissioned by Left Foot Forward. The problem here, of course, is that it is all totally hypothetical. Such things were said during the referendum campaign itself and Leaver voters, clearly, were not taken aback then. So why should we be surprised when more than a year before Brexit those who voted that way should feel…

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The LDs appear to be returning to their former role as NOTA – none of the above

The LDs appear to be returning to their former role as NOTA – none of the above

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Council by-election vote share changes with previous winning party: (That UKIP-LDM swing tho…) pic.twitter.com/ENb5KEutC4 — PolitiStatsUK (@PolitiStatsUK) February 10, 2018 I’ve just come across the above chart which shows an interesting picture of vote movements in council by-elections since GE17. Clearly the collapse of UKIP is having a big impact and in almost every segment of seats, based on the defending party, LAB, CON and the LDs have moved forward. What is striking is that in the former UKIP seats…

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