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Betfair punters now make it a 66% chance that Trump will survive his first term

13/4/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

After a quite dramatic week in US politics during which there has been a raid on the law firm that advises the President there has been a slight decline on the betting markets on whether Trump will serve a full first term. The latest development with strong echoes of Watergate in the early 1970s is that Trump’s lawyer is known to have kept extensive sound recordings of those he had been in conversation with and the President’s allies are concerned…

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This week’s by-elections: A LAB & CON hold plus a CON loss to LD on a 41% swing

13/4/2018 Editor Comments 0 Comment

St. Olaves on St. Edmundsbury (Lab defence) Result: Lab 365 (59% +27% on last time), Con 150 (24% -7% on last time), Ind 77 (12% -26% on last time), Lib Dem 31 (5%, no candidate last time) Labour HOLD with a majority of 215 (35%) on a swing of 17% from Con to Lab (26.5% from Ind to Lab) Middleton, Cheney on South Northamptonshire (Con defence) Result: Con 391 (42% -22% on last time), Lib Dem 316 (34%, no candidate…

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If Mrs May does back military strikes against Syria it will be in the face of public opinion

12/4/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

There is no doubt that this is going to be a tricky one for the prime minister. After gathering of the consensus of nations in relation to the Salisbury attack she’s now in a position where there’s an expectation that Britain could support action against Syria particularly because of the use of chemical weapons. The first full national polling on the issue it is featured above in the YouGov charts and there is no doubt at all that the public…

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LAB plan to give free bus travel to those of 25 and younger

12/4/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

But is it more about municipalising buses than helping the young? It is being reported that Corbyn’s Labour is planning a big measure to help those under 25 if it should win the next election with transport costs. The plan is to offer a free bus pass to those in that age group which can be used on those services which are wholly or partly provided by public bodies. But there’s a catch. The objective appears to be more about…

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This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast

11/4/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Corbyn’s declining poll ratings, economic trust and who would vote for a new party anyway? On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss: 1) Jeremy Corbyn’s declining poll ratings and whether Russia or the ongoing anti-Semitism row is more to blame. 2) A new poll shows May and Hammond leading Corbyn and McDonnell +13 points on the economy. But is the economy as all-important politically as we once thought? 3) David Miliand’s favourabilty ratings – how do they compare to his…

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The must win the for LAB on May 3rd – Barnet with its sizeable Jewish communities

11/4/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

A long-standing PBer with great knowledge of London local elections has emailed me to suggest that the 11/4 on a CON majority on Barnet Council in next month’s locals is a “good value bet”. I know that he himself is big Tory activist and knows this area very well. If he is getting the message that it might not be the certain LAB gain that was being suggested a few weeks ago then I for one take that seriously. I’ve…

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For the first time since GE2017 Corbyn has slipped behind TMay in the leader ratings – can he recover?

11/4/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

How YouGov’s party leader favourability tracker has changed since TMay called GE2017 The chart shows the trend in TMay’s net favourability lead over Corbyn since she called the election jut over a year ago. The figures are calculated by taking the PM’s net rating and subtracting Mr. Corbyn’s net figure. As can be seen this really tells the story of British politics over the past year – from a position where Mrs. May was totally dominant to the turnaround at…

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Flotsam and jetsam. Britain’s quiet coastal disaster

10/4/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

They say that if the outer 50 kilometres of Australia were to fall into the sea, the population of that island continent would drop by 85%. Britain doesn’t have the large hinterland that Australia possesses, but if Britain were to be attacked by a giant cookie cutter from space, it’s not at all clear that some of the places crimped off would get any less attention than before. The whole idea of going to the seaside is a relatively new…

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