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The winner of the first Westminster by-elections of the Parliament is unlikely even to take his seat

1/5/2018 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Harry Hayfield on Thursday’s West Tyrone Parliamentary By-Election (Sinn Fein defence) This by-election is the 33rd by-election since the 2010 general election and is the 25th occasion when a by-election has been caused by an MP resigning their seat (75%). This compares with the eight years before then (2002 – 2010) when out of 21 by-elections 11 were caused by resigning MP’s (52%) and the reason for this? Fewer and fewer MP’s are dying in office. Indeed during the 1966…

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Prof John Curtice suggests that LAB is not going to have an easy ride in Thursday locals as many of the forecasts

1/5/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

John Curtice In an article in the Independent and a presentation at the annual Political Studies Association local election briefing John Curtice has cast doubts on the suggestions that Corbyn’s Labour is going to have an exceptional performance in this week’s locals. The big thing in his analysis is that there is a huge divide on Brexit between London, where 42% of the seats will be contested, and the councils in the rest of England where elections are being held….

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How the Tories are using the the appointment of the new Home Secretary

30/4/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The big news of the day has been the appointment by Theresa May of Sajid Javid as the new Home Secretary – the first time a member of the BAME communities has been appointed to one of the main officers of state. Given the background for the demise of his predecessor this appears a smart move which the Tories are hoping will help the win greater support from the non white communities a segment of the electorate where they’ve really…

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Corbyn’s Ipsos MORI satisfaction ratings drop to lowest point since GE2017

30/4/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Just three out of five LAB voters give him positive rating Meanwhile there’s some voting intention cheer for the LDs LDs up 4% to 10% with @IpsosMORI – their highest share in any poll since GE2017 pic.twitter.com/YysjQCFjhn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2018 The big story from the April Ipsos MORI poll in the Standard is a further deterioration in Mr corbyn’s satisfaction ratings. These, from the pollster, have been asking the same format for well over 40 years…

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Why TMay should choose as HomeSec Nicky Morgan – the woman who criticised her £1000 leather trousers

30/4/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

This could make the passage of the Brexit Bill easier Two years ago Nicky Morgan got dropped from the cabinet and since then has been one of the most vocal and effective critics of the government’s Brexit policy. It has been said that there’s a huge gulf between them following an argument between her and the Prime Minister over the former’s criticism of Theresa May’s £1000 leather trousers. Since then Morgan has become one of the key senior players in…

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Amber Rudd resigns

29/4/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Amber Rudd has resigned — Robert Peston (@Peston) April 29, 2018 Amber Rudd resignation is right. The first memo was bad enough; the second memo made her position untenable. Yes, all these caveats below apply, but she still had to go. https://t.co/rRrh11mFgK — Jane Merrick (@janemerrick23) April 29, 2018 Rudd's return to the backbenches likely means an extra MP for a Customs Union in forthcoming vote. — George Eaton (@georgeeaton) April 29, 2018

It is clear someone is leaking to damage Amber Rudd and I think she’s toast

29/4/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

BREAKING: Amber Rudd letter to PM reveals 'ambitious but deliverable' removals target https://t.co/pCV3WHqHsd — The Guardian (@guardian) April 29, 2018 Mrs May’s firewall looks like toast after this Guardian revelation In the past few days it is obvious that someone is leaking relentlessly against Amber Rudd to force her out. It might be the fact that I tipped Amber Rudd as next out of the cabinet at 33/1 is colouring my view but I’m not sure she’s going to recover…

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If you fancy a 2% return in a little over 8 months this is the bet for you

29/4/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

William Hill have a market on whether there will be a second EU in/out referendum before the 1st of January 2019, I’m backing the No side. Logistically I just cannot see a referendum happening this year. It would require legislation to be passed by both parts of Parliament, given the number of Leavers in both places, and Mrs May’s lack of majority in both Houses such a bill is likely to get bogged down in Parliamentary trench warfare. I suspect…

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