Ladbrokes make Michael Gove favourite to succeed Rudd as HomeSec

Ladbrokes make Michael Gove favourite to succeed Rudd as HomeSec

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But would TMay really appoint him? The firm’s prices are here:- Next Home Secretary Michael Gove 4/1 Jeremy Hunt 6/1 James Brokenshire 8/1 Diane Abbott 8/1 Damian Hinds 10/1 David Gauke 10/1 Jacob Rees-Mogg 10/1 Karen Bradley 10/1 12/1 bar At this stage I’m certainly not betting on this market. Firstly we don’t know whether Amber Road will indeed be leaving and the chances are that she will be staying although she could be in a pickle if it is…

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Amber warning: Rudd is safe – for now

Amber warning: Rudd is safe – for now

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Labour’s front-bench inexperience has been shown up as much as Rudd’s errors Politics is not just showbiz for ugly people; it’s also sport for the energetic, enthusiastic, passionate but physically average. Although virtually all politicians go into it because they believe strongly in at least some aspects of what their party stands for and because they want to see the reforms they champion implemented, most also simply enjoy practising politics – the camaraderie of (and rivalry within) the teams, the…

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Michael Gove looks as though he has his eye on Theresa’s job

Michael Gove looks as though he has his eye on Theresa’s job

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Now a clear third in the betting behind Moggsy & BoJo The machinations in the Conservative Party about Brexit and Windrush has set off a little bit of a flurry of betting on the next party leader market which is currently the busiest UK politics market on Betfair. The beleaguered Home Secretary, Amber Rudd, has now slipped down to be a 3% chance. Meanwhile Michael Gove has edged up to a clear 3rd place on a 7% chance. He’s behind…

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Tonight’s PB/Polling Matters podcast featuring Professor Colin Rallings

Tonight’s PB/Polling Matters podcast featuring Professor Colin Rallings

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On this week’s podcast Keiran Pedley is joined by Professor Colin Rallings of the University of Plymouth to look ahead to next week’s local elections. Rallings breaks down which results to look out for and what they might mean for the future with some interesting insight into how the UKIP vote continues to unwind across the country and how Labour might do in London following today’s YouGov poll for Queen Mary University. Keiran Pedley Follow @KeiranPedley Tweet

After all the wait the YouGov London local poll has just margin of error changes

After all the wait the YouGov London local poll has just margin of error changes

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So we are almost back where we were UPDATED The big story from the poll is that there has been a disproportionate drop in the LAB vote in inner London. Labour 59 (down 8 from Feb) Cons 22 (up 5) This puts into question whether the red team can take Wandsworth which is a key target and one which has remained in Tory hands for 40 years. It also, if the poll is right means that Westminster will remain Tory….

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Ahead of this morning’s YouGov London poll what happened at the capital’s last elections and the Feb 2018 poll

Ahead of this morning’s YouGov London poll what happened at the capital’s last elections and the Feb 2018 poll

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With so little polling or other hard data ahead of next Thursday’s elections there’s a lot of focus this morning on the new YouGov London Poll from YouGov for QMUL. As can be seen the February survey suggested that Labour were going to make huge gains and it was on this that the early betting and predictions have been made. There has been a suggestion that the latest survey is going to be nothing like as good for Labour hence…

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Tonight on the PB/Polling Matters podcast – Prof Colin Rallings on next week’s local elections

Tonight on the PB/Polling Matters podcast – Prof Colin Rallings on next week’s local elections

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With the local elections only a week ago I am very pleased to alert to you this evening’s PB/Polling Matters podcast when Keiran Pedley’s guest will be Professor Colin Rallings who with Professor Michael Thrasher are just about the country’s leading experts on local elections. Prof Rallings will also be known to those who watch the ITV general election programmes. This is something of a first and I think that the podcast format developed by Keiran enables the level of…

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