Building the barricade. How the Conservatives are minimising their chances of picking up former Remain voters

Building the barricade. How the Conservatives are minimising their chances of picking up former Remain voters

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What are government policies for? If you were to ask the average member of the public, they would probably tell you that they were to set the best way possible for running the country on the particular topic at hand. Of course, that hasn’t always or even usually been the main point of government policies. In most countries in most eras, government policies have mostly been designed to benefit the interests of an elite. Kings rarely thought about the impact…

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R.I.P. The Conservative Party 1834-2018 if the Brexiteer dream is realised

R.I.P. The Conservative Party 1834-2018 if the Brexiteer dream is realised

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SUNDAY TIMES LEAD: ‘Brexiteer Plot’ by @ShippersUnbound pic.twitter.com/70OGZyDhvO — Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) February 3, 2018 It’s either a/the customs union or remaining Prime Minister Mrs May. Until Mrs May voluntarily stands down or is forced out we’re going to be subjected to stories like this. What is interesting is that it is the more fundamentalist Brexiteers that are revolting. I suspect Mrs May will propose a much more pragmatic deal than these Brexiteers are prepared to accept, so taking the…

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The Tories look solidly back in third place in Scotland – the part of the UK which has seen the most seat turbulence

The Tories look solidly back in third place in Scotland – the part of the UK which has seen the most seat turbulence

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Wikipedia How the parties are faring north of the border Next week I’m off to Scotland the part of the UK that played a critical part in the outcomes of GE2015 and GE2017. For since the IndyRef in September 2014 there has been a huge amount of turbulence in Scottish politics. At the last two general elections there’ve been more seats changing hands there than anywhere else in the UK. Initially the failure to win independence in September 2014 saw…

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Not only will there not be an EURef2, there can’t be

Not only will there not be an EURef2, there can’t be

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Both the timetable and the politics make it all but impossible It’s the Remainer dream that won’t go away. Indeed, it’s as if they’ve never woken up to the strong coffee the electorate served on the fateful night in June 2016. They want to believe that the fight is still on and continue to make the case that they should have made better before EURef1. It isn’t still on and the dream is just that: an hallucination in the dark….

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The percentage of CON voters saying Brexit “wrong” reaches record high

The percentage of CON voters saying Brexit “wrong” reaches record high

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The lead by Brexit Wrong over Brexit Right is highest ever The details of the latest YouGov Brexit tracker is out and the striking feature is the high number of Conservative voters who are now saying that the referendum decision was wrong. Last month 22% of CON voters took this view while in this latest poll with the fieldwork this week the figure rose to 28%. As can be see as well 8% of Leave voters now believe that the…

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Latest local by elections see a LAB loss to LDs on swing of 35% in strong Leave area

Latest local by elections see a LAB loss to LDs on swing of 35% in strong Leave area

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Falmouth, Smithick on Cornwall (Lab defence) Result: Lab 643 (60% +20% on last time), Con 184 (17% -7% on last time), Lib Dem 184 (17% -2% on last time), Green 57 (5% -11% on last time) Labour HOLD with a majority of 459 (43%) on a swing of 13.5% from Con to Lab Pallion on Sunderland (Lab defence) Result: Lib Dem 1,251 (54% +50% on last time), Lab 807 (35% -16% on last time), Con 126 (5% -8% on last…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Youthquakes and the British Election Study

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Youthquakes and the British Election Study

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On this week’s podcast, Keiran and Leo analyse the latest round of British Election Study data and ask ‘was there really a ‘youthquake’ at the 2017 General Election and does it matter? Keiran and Leo also look at the role that gender played in the 2017 vote and uncover some striking data that suggests we might be getting public opinon on Brexit all wrong. Find all this and more on this week’s show. Follow this week’s podcasters: Follow @KeiranPedley Follow…

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Latest Electoral Calculus projection has CON 15 seats ahead even on a 0.5% lower average vote share

Latest Electoral Calculus projection has CON 15 seats ahead even on a 0.5% lower average vote share

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The latest seat prediction from Electoral Calculus another reminder to LAB that the system now works in favour of the Tories. CON average vote share 0.5% behind but with clear lead on seatshttps://t.co/VmVdusO6wz pic.twitter.com/QsV9I7FkL0 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 1, 2018 This is, of course, on the current old boundaries I have made this point before but the latest projection from Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus is an excellent example of how under current boundaries the system works in favour of…

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