All but one of them is outside London Even though we could be four and a half years away from the next general election LAB is clearly getting ready and today it has announced that candidates have been put in place in 24 key targets in England. The seats involved are listed in the table above which include the names of the incumbent Conservative MPs as well as the swings required. This comes from a confident party that did far…
The problem is the leader – but could anyone else do better? Revolutions devouring their own creators is hardly a novelty but UKIP are giving a fascinating new take on an old theme. They were never the most disciplined of parties and perhaps that was, for some, part of their attraction. Even so, since their crowning glory with their success in the referendum, they’ve not been so much undisciplined but ungovernable. After Nigel Farage stepped down in September 2016, they’ve…
A blip or a trend? Ask PB regulars will know I make a point of reporting the YouGov Brexit tracker which is the one that has the most data points and for which we have a detailed records going back right to the referendum. After a phase since August when all the polls found that “wrong to leave EU” was in the lead the latest from YouGov, with fieldwork this week, has right back ahead. Basically what this shows is…
Hulton on Bolton (Lab defence) Result: Con 1,455 (49% +16% on last time), Lab 1,179 (40% +3% on last time), UKIP 190 (6% -18% on last time), Lib Dem 67 (2% unchanged on last time), Green 52 (2% -1% on last time) Conservative GAIN from Labour with a majority of 276 (9%) on a swing of 6.5% from Lab to Con Newport Pagnell North and Hanslope on Milton Keynes (Con defence) Result: Con 1,604 (53% +15% on last time), Lab…
With the exception of the period of the UK General Election the biggest political betting markets of the past year have been on Donald Trump. Is he going to survive a full first term? Will he win again in 2020? What will be the year of his actual departure from the White House? These are obviously going to be linked to how the news media are treating him but even the controversial Michael Wolff book did not take his survival…
A small flutter might be worthwhile Following what was perceived to be a success at the last general election, although Labour finished 58 seats behind, there have been few questions about the future of Jeremy Corbyn. He looks pretty secure and the biggest issue he faces is that he will be in his early 70s if the next election does take place, as planned, in 2022. Will LAB want to go into the election with their flag carrier being in…
What’s TMay’s strategy?
On this week’s podcast, Keiran and Leo continue with the new format of the show where each guest chooses a news story that has interested them from the past week and provides some polling analysis on a key issue of the day. Topics discussed this week include: 1) What the Tories’ new focus on environmental issues says about their brand and future electoral strategy 2) Why Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson are indicating support for another referendum on Brexit and…