Now a clear third in the betting behind Moggsy & BoJo The machinations in the Conservative Party about Brexit and Windrush has set off a little bit of a flurry of betting on the next party leader market which is currently the busiest UK politics market on Betfair. The beleaguered Home Secretary, Amber Rudd, has now slipped down to be a 3% chance. Meanwhile Michael Gove has edged up to a clear 3rd place on a 7% chance. He’s behind…
On this week’s podcast Keiran Pedley is joined by Professor Colin Rallings of the University of Plymouth to look ahead to next week’s local elections. Rallings breaks down which results to look out for and what they might mean for the future with some interesting insight into how the UKIP vote continues to unwind across the country and how Labour might do in London following today’s YouGov poll for Queen Mary University. Keiran Pedley Follow @KeiranPedley Tweet
So we are almost back where we were UPDATED The big story from the poll is that there has been a disproportionate drop in the LAB vote in inner London. Labour 59 (down 8 from Feb) Cons 22 (up 5) This puts into question whether the red team can take Wandsworth which is a key target and one which has remained in Tory hands for 40 years. It also, if the poll is right means that Westminster will remain Tory….
With so little polling or other hard data ahead of next Thursday’s elections there’s a lot of focus this morning on the new YouGov London Poll from YouGov for QMUL. As can be seen the February survey suggested that Labour were going to make huge gains and it was on this that the early betting and predictions have been made. There has been a suggestion that the latest survey is going to be nothing like as good for Labour hence…
With the local elections only a week ago I am very pleased to alert to you this evening’s PB/Polling Matters podcast when Keiran Pedley’s guest will be Professor Colin Rallings who with Professor Michael Thrasher are just about the country’s leading experts on local elections. Prof Rallings will also be known to those who watch the ITV general election programmes. This is something of a first and I think that the podcast format developed by Keiran enables the level of…
I'm told a poll is coming out on Thursday which isn't good for Labour in London. It's been a hellish few weeks for Labour. It's not in the bag in the local elections. Not even close. This is a wake-up call. If you don't vote and encourage others to vote, Labour will lose. — Owen Jones? (@OwenJones84) April 24, 2018 The poll, part of the YouGov London series from QMUL is due to be published tomorrow though it appears that…
The YouGov favourability trackers are just about the only polling where we can compare leaders with their parties on the same basis. The same question is asked in exactly the same form to the same sample whether people have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of CON/LAB/TMay/Corbyn. It is also a tracker which is asked in the same form at regular intervals which means there are enough data points to examine trends. The movement in the leader and party ratings since…
Drawing national conclusions from the local battles We are only 8 days away from the May local elections which at the moment looks as though will be the most significant UK electoral test that we will have during 2018. One of the problems with looking for national trends from the locals is that very different ranges of seats come up each year and we cannot simply use the party vote or seat totals for comparison. Over a four year cycle…