The dangers of reverse-reasoning: a Christmas parable
Beware starting from a conclusion and working backwards “This time next year, we’ll be running the country”, as Jeremy Corbyn didn’t quite say a few days ago in his interview with Grazia. It’s a near-repetition of his prediction at Glastonbury this June – except that there he was talking about Christmas 2017 rather than 2018 – and for those not favourably inclined towards him, might bear a passing resemblance to the unsubstantiated optimism of another Christmas staple. Admittedly, Del Boy…
Young voters are much more opposed to blue passports being brought back than older ones in favour
A smart electoral move or not? Above is based on YouGov polling from last February when the specific question of the post-Brexit reintroduction of the blue passport was asked. This is something that ministers have just announced will happen. The figure shown is the net one. The total opposed is subtracted from those supporting for each segment. As can be seen from the chart this will please some older voters but in the overall sample there were more opposed than…
In terms of leadership chances Jeremy Hunt emerges as the winner from the DGreen exit
Why I’ve had a punt on the HealthSec to succeed TMay Yesterday I had a bet for the first time on the Health Secretary, Jeremy Hunt, as next Conservative leader. I got 23/1 on Betfair. I know other PBers have been betting and tipping him at longer odds and well done to them. What convinced me that Hunt might be in the running was that it was he who was sent out to do the Today programme interview only hours…
Can we agree that “Peak Theresa” was the ComRes 25% lead in the S Mirror on April 23rd 2017?
S Mirror ComRes poll field work April 19-20 CON 50 LAB 25 UKIP 7 LD 11 Over the past day or so may have been lots of eulogies, that’s the best way to describe it, to the extraordinary resilience and staying ower of Theresa May who seems to cope with one crisis after another and still remain at Number 10. Almost all of the articles seek to highlight the poll lead that she had after calling the general election in…
London Local Elections 2018 : By-Elections Review and Forecast
Harry Hayfield looks at the capital’s by-election and has a forecast Since the local elections in 2014 in London, there have been a total of 75 by-elections to the 32 councils in the capital and overall those by-elections have shown that the mainstream parties are clawing back support from the smaller parties. And yet, despite this there has been very little actual change with only six seats changing hands, those seats being: Stepney Green on Tower Hamlets (Lab GAIN from…
What now for Damian Green?
A sacked, anti-authoritarian Remainer with all the dirt on No10 on the backbenches. What could possibly go wrong? — Gerri Peev (@GerriPeev) December 20, 2017 Andrew Mitchell MP: “These two admitted breaches of the ministerial code are dwarfed by the extraordinary behaviour of the police which fortunately is now under investigation” — Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) December 20, 2017 The morning after the night before and the big question surely is what is Damian Green going to do now? That it…
Damian Green resigns
Damien Green has resigned — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) December 20, 2017 PM letter to Damian Green pic.twitter.com/CqFBmbXRer — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) December 20, 2017 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet