Mrs May’s weird plot to make Gavin Williamson her successor is likely to fail

Mrs May’s weird plot to make Gavin Williamson her successor is likely to fail

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Mrs May is annoying far too many people in the party & that will cause her and her preferred successor problems in the future Trying to understand Mrs May’s recent reshuffle has been a challenge, but over the weekend a few people suggested it was all part of a weird plot to make Gavin Williamson Tory leader, Iain Martin says Theresa May’s reshuffle was rubbish for a reason it seems. In the days that followed this week’s half-hearted reconstruction of the…

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If Scotland has its own Secretary of State then so should London

If Scotland has its own Secretary of State then so should London

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Graphic: The last two general election results in London via the BBC We were promised a New Year reshuffle.  In the end, it resembled not so much a game of musical chairs as musical statues, with only Justine Greening, Patrick McLoughlin and James Brokenshire falling over.  Theresa May was unable to impose herself more fully on her Cabinet.  The chief points of interest were in the adding of social care to the Secretary of State for Health’s remit and the…

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The YouGov Brexit tracker continues to show that those who think it is wrong have the edge

The YouGov Brexit tracker continues to show that those who think it is wrong have the edge

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The comparison with a year ago is greater than the margin of error With all that has been going on with Donald Trump I have yet to post on PB my regular chart showing the trend in YouGov’s Brexit tracker since the referendum took place. Because every change in every single pole be regarded as simply within the margin of error what I tried to to take the average for YouGov findings each month and reflected this in the chart….

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Putin on a show: finding value in March’s Russian election

Putin on a show: finding value in March’s Russian election

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The question is not whether Vlad will win but by how much Vladimir Putin has now run Russia for longer than anyone since Stalin.* It’s all but certain that he will continue to do so after this March’s presidential election. Ladbrokes are offering odds of 1/50 that he wins a fourth full term, which are nonetheless value: probably the shortest-ever odds tipped as such on this site. Looked at another way, it might only be a 2% return in about…

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Tonight’s Trump news – the payoff just before WH2016 and the Donald urinal

Tonight’s Trump news – the payoff just before WH2016 and the Donald urinal

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NEW: A lawyer for Donald Trump arranged a $130,000 payment to a former adult-film star a month before the 2016 election as part of an agreement that precluded her from publicly discussing an alleged sexual encounter with Mr. Trump, per people familiar.https://t.co/KZhdex7UKE — erica orden (@eorden) January 12, 2018 After Trump's "sh*thole" remarks yesterday, it's time this picture got another airing. pic.twitter.com/txKJ2X5Sq0 — Guy de Jonquières (@guydej1) January 12, 2018

How Britain should play the Trump card without folding or upping the ante

How Britain should play the Trump card without folding or upping the ante

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A guest slot from Julian Glassford The vertiginous rise of the new champion of the alt-right in 2016 prompted a palpable blend of bafflement and consternation among the political elite right around the globe. Few dared even imagine that Donald Trump would triumph over his wily, experienced, and altogether far more internationally acceptable rival in the US presidential election. Indeed, most appeared caught almost completely off-guard and, a year on, none have yet managed to figure out quite how to…

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Marf on TMay’s big idea – the war on plastic waste

Marf on TMay’s big idea – the war on plastic waste

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She needs to be careful that it doesn’t become a “cones hotline” If the object was to move on from the bungling of the reshuffle then Theresa May’s remarkable move on plastic waste has certainly achieved that. For this is something that will affect almost everyone certainly those who have to shop and, no doubt, most people have a view. For the reshuffle simply highlighted to the world what a weak position she was in and that there is little…

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Alastair Meeks on predicting politics better

Alastair Meeks on predicting politics better

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“How could I have known?” is the cry of palookas at the card tables everywhere.  It’s a cry that’s been heard much in political circles in the last few years.  In short order, David Cameron won an overall majority in 2015, Leave won the EU referendum in June 2016, Donald Trump won the presidential election in November 2016 and Theresa May lost her overall majority in June last year.  None of these events had been expected by the pundits. But…

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