YouGov’s Brexit tracker – how opinion has moved since the June 2016 referendum
The latest split of Labour voters Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
Leave till last. Identifying the next Conservative leader
Considering how fondly it is remembered as a children’s book, The Hobbit has a lot of gore in it. (The alert will already have figured out that I’m going to be talking about Conservative leadership manoeuvrings.) Bilbo Baggins is threatened with imminent devourment on five separate occasions, which would make even the most gung-ho adventurer feel put out. On the first of these occasions, he has been captured by trolls. They quiz him about whether there are others…
The Tories go into Thursday’s locals in a much better national polling position than when the seats were last fought in 2014
TMay’s Tories doing better over Corbyn’s LAB than Cameron’s party was doing over EdM’s Given that context is everything I thought it might be useful to show the national polling gap between the main two parties this year compared with what it was in 2014 when most of the seats up on Thursday will last fought. Rather than show every single poll that was carried out in April 2014 and this month I have taken the average gap tha the…
The winner of the first Westminster by-elections of the Parliament is unlikely even to take his seat
Harry Hayfield on Thursday’s West Tyrone Parliamentary By-Election (Sinn Fein defence) This by-election is the 33rd by-election since the 2010 general election and is the 25th occasion when a by-election has been caused by an MP resigning their seat (75%). This compares with the eight years before then (2002 – 2010) when out of 21 by-elections 11 were caused by resigning MP’s (52%) and the reason for this? Fewer and fewer MP’s are dying in office. Indeed during the 1966…
Prof John Curtice suggests that LAB is not going to have an easy ride in Thursday locals as many of the forecasts
John Curtice In an article in the Independent and a presentation at the annual Political Studies Association local election briefing John Curtice has cast doubts on the suggestions that Corbyn’s Labour is going to have an exceptional performance in this week’s locals. The big thing in his analysis is that there is a huge divide on Brexit between London, where 42% of the seats will be contested, and the councils in the rest of England where elections are being held….
How the Tories are using the the appointment of the new Home Secretary
The big news of the day has been the appointment by Theresa May of Sajid Javid as the new Home Secretary – the first time a member of the BAME communities has been appointed to one of the main officers of state. Given the background for the demise of his predecessor this appears a smart move which the Tories are hoping will help the win greater support from the non white communities a segment of the electorate where they’ve really…
Corbyn’s Ipsos MORI satisfaction ratings drop to lowest point since GE2017
Just three out of five LAB voters give him positive rating Meanwhile there’s some voting intention cheer for the LDs LDs up 4% to 10% with @IpsosMORI – their highest share in any poll since GE2017 pic.twitter.com/YysjQCFjhn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2018 The big story from the April Ipsos MORI poll in the Standard is a further deterioration in Mr corbyn’s satisfaction ratings. These, from the pollster, have been asking the same format for well over 40 years…
Why TMay should choose as HomeSec Nicky Morgan – the woman who criticised her £1000 leather trousers
This could make the passage of the Brexit Bill easier Two years ago Nicky Morgan got dropped from the cabinet and since then has been one of the most vocal and effective critics of the government’s Brexit policy. It has been said that there’s a huge gulf between them following an argument between her and the Prime Minister over the former’s criticism of Theresa May’s £1000 leather trousers. Since then Morgan has become one of the key senior players in…