Motivating Labour’s huge volunteer army can be at odds with managing election expectations

Motivating Labour’s huge volunteer army can be at odds with managing election expectations

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How losing seats can be presented as a victory I have just got off the phone from someone who was working for the Conservative campaign yesterday in a key ward in Wandsworth which was eventually held by the party by margin of 36 votes. One of his observations was that Labour had dozens of activists on the ground with apparently very little to do. He said that they seemed to be without direction and they would go mob handed from…

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Those PBers who took the Barnet tips are in the money this morning

Those PBers who took the Barnet tips are in the money this morning

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Have we seen the high water of Corbynism? Over the past few weeks there have been several posts here suggesting that the best bet of the local elections was on the key LAB target in London – Barnet. TSE started it all on March 25th when the Tories were 5/1 with Ladbrokes and he suggested that that we should bet that LAB wouldn’t do it. Then we heard from Sean Fear and myself who argued that this borough, where a…

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The very early results show the Tories doing well and being optimistic

The very early results show the Tories doing well and being optimistic

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Nuneaton & Bedworth, results of seats up: Con: 11 (+9)Lab: 6 (-8)Grn: 0 (-1) Chgs. w/ 2014 — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) May 3, 2018 Senior tories expecting Labour to take Trafford – would be a big win for them, taking prosperous NW Tory area – currently only Tory council in NW — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) May 3, 2018 FWIW: I'm refusing to buy Labour's current line that Wandsworth is totally out of reach. What's clear, though, is that they were…

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Tonight the results from what looks like the final major electoral test before Brexit

Tonight the results from what looks like the final major electoral test before Brexit

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How will the big picture compare with the polls? Although large parts of the UK do not have elections today this, unless something exceptional happens, will be the last big electoral test before Britain is due to leave the EU on March 29th next year. Because of the nature of the seats that are being fought it is expected that Labour will do very well. A total of 42% of them are in London which is very good territory for…

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A big question today is how many voters can’t cast their ballots because they don’t have the required ID

A big question today is how many voters can’t cast their ballots because they don’t have the required ID

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Just been to vote. Was informed that two people had already turned up without ID this morning so had been unable to vote. Very worrying and backs up all the evidence that the voter ID pilot in Bromley is plain wrong. — Ellie Reeves (@elliereeves) May 3, 2018 This is also happening in Swindon Borough where some who have none of the approved ID have also not received their ballot cards. — Sarah Bowles (@sarahbowlesuk) May 3, 2018 In none…

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Elizabeth Warren trounces betting favourite, Bernie Sanders, in the first Democratic primary poll of WH2020

Elizabeth Warren trounces betting favourite, Bernie Sanders, in the first Democratic primary poll of WH2020

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NEW HAMPSHIREIf the Democratic primary for president were held today and the candidates were [see below] …Warren 26%Biden 20%Sanders 13%Booker 8%Harris 4%Patrick 4%Gillibrand 2%McAuliffe 2%Unsure 21%(Suffolk U. Poll, Democratic primary voters, 4/26-30/18) — PollingReport.com (@pollreport) May 2, 2018 An early setback for Bernie & his enthusiastic fans? Although the first primary of the next White House Race will not be held for another 20 months or so we have the first poll out overnight on the Democratic nomination and this,…

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NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Rudd resigns, immigration, Trump’s visit, plus a look ahead to the local elections

NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Rudd resigns, immigration, Trump’s visit, plus a look ahead to the local elections

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On this week’s podcast, Leo Barasi returns and discusses the latest glut of voting intention polls with Keiran Pedley. Leo and Keiran look at what is behind the differences in voting intention figures between pollsters, how Corbyn’s personal poll ratings compare historically and the importance of the economy is in current polling. The podcast then turns to Rudd’s resignation this week, with an in-depth look at public opinion on her departure and immigration more generally. Topics covered include whether the…

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