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Local By-Election Review : June 14th 2018

15/6/2018 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Town on Doncaster (Lab defence) Result: Labour 1,084 (47% +8% on last time), Yorkshire 570 (25% -1% on last time), Green 294 (13% -1% on last time), Conservative 260 (11% -11% on last time), Liberal Democrat 66 (3%, no candidate last time), Independent 43 (2%, no candidate last time) Labour HOLD with a majority of 514 (22%) on a swing of 4.5% from Yorkshire to Labour London Bridge and West Bermondsey on Southwark (New wards) Emboldened denotes elected Liberal Democrats…

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Lewisham East: Five take aways

15/6/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The result is almost exactly in line with the LDs canvas projection issued on Monday afternoon. This had LAB 49, LD 25, CON 17. https://t.co/zTGmdohYEq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 15, 2018 Voters tend to avoid avoidable by-elections The most striking statistic from the overnight result was the turnout which dropped from 69% at the general election just over a year ago to 33% yesterday. This is one of the biggest falls compared with the previous General Election on record…

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The lastest Lewisham East odds and expectations

14/6/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

With less than 2 hours of voting left the Lewisham East by election and an easy Labour hold looks like the market expectation with the Lib Dems in second. I wonder if the value is backing the turnout at sub 30% at 12/1 pic.twitter.com/nGs9m3wfEk — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 14, 2018 If there's a Lab to LD swing in Lewisham East then that's not the sort of performance that indicates Labour are on course to form the next government. — TSE…

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The Worst Economic Statistic?

14/6/2018 robert Comments 0 Comment

There are many economic statistics, some broadly useful, others bizarrely esoteric. Only one manages to be both useless and dangerous. Worse: it’s trumpeted by journalists, so you may even have been taken in yourself. Welcome to the worst economic statistic. Robert Smithson Robert tweets as MarketWarbles follow him by clicking the follow button below Follow @marketwarbles Tweet

NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Trump meets Kim and Brexit edges closer

13/6/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

On this week’s Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss Trump’s historic meeting with Kim Jong Un in Singapore. Keiran and Leo debate the significance of the meeting and what happens now whilst Keiran takes us through the latest polling on Trump in America that shows what his re-election campaign might look like, why he remains in a tough spot and why these negotiations with North Korea could make or break him. Later in the show, Keiran and…

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This looks like a spectacular bust up between the SNP and the Speaker but it does look staged

13/6/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

WATCH: SNP leader @IanBlackfordMP gets thrown out of the Commons and his MPs follow pic.twitter.com/1sgWkJOCsH — PoliticsHome (@politicshome) June 13, 2018 https://twitter.com/elashton/status/1006862131898306560 SNP MPs due to stage a mass-walkout from Parliament for the media. — Aubrey Allegretti (@breeallegretti) June 13, 2018 Dare I suggest that being thrown out of the chamber was precisely what Ian Blackford wanted? John Bercow played straight into his hands. #PMQs — Kevin Schofield (@KevinASchofield) June 13, 2018 Ian Blackford and the other SNP MPs held…

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Threatened women live longest. Bet against Theresa May going quickly

13/6/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

We read in the weekend papers that the Brexiters within the Conservative party are mustering for an attempt in July to despatch Theresa May, once Royal Assent has been received to the withdrawal bill. Sources close to David Davis and Jacob Rees-Mogg are covering their retreat in the face of the Prime Minister’s obduracy over future customs arrangements with the EU with a hail of Parthian shots. Her opponents already have 42 MPs ready to lodge letters for a vote…

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Soon there might not be a single Tory MP not p*ssed off at Theresa May’s duplicity (and or incompetence)

12/6/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Finally, after 2 hours of silence from No10, a statement: DexEU spokesman: "We have not, and will not, agree to the House of Commons binding the Government's hands in the negotiations". Grieve et al thought the PM just had. — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) June 12, 2018 1. Robert Buckland tells me govt agreed to 'further discussions' about Grieve amendment that may, or may not result in a change – that is simply not what Tory rebels believe the PM…

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