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On Betfair 2018 is once again favourite for TMay’s exit

19/6/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Is she going to be able to survive? Over the past year I’ve had a pretty good record with my political bets which have come to fruition. I was on the Democrats in the Alabama and Pennsylvania special elections and, of course, backed the LDs to beat the Tories in last week’s by-election. I lost on the Arizona special election and my long-shot for the Tory leadership, Damian Green, fell by the wayside earlier in the year. My other significant…

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And so the “meaningful vote” issue gets put back into the bill by the Lords

18/6/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

New Lords defeat for government on Brexit 'meaningful vote' amendment https://t.co/QfOQmitOuC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 18, 2018 The problems for TMay mount I have to say that I haven’t been following politics tonight but the battle of Stalingrad. The problem here is that the ex-CON Attorney-General, Dominic Grieve, thought he had a deal last week when the bill was before the Commons and he didn’t push his original amendment. That ministers appear to have reneged on that arrangement was…

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Javid goes on the offensive at cabinet over cannabis for medical use

18/6/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Sajid Javid repeatedly tried to raise the Billy Caldwell case at Cabinet this morning. But Theresa May blocked him, saying it wasn’t on the agenda https://t.co/CDya3Gnh1J — James Forsyth (@JGForsyth) June 18, 2018 TMay looks tin-eared on the Billy Caldwell case Las month YouGov found that 75% of those polled backed allowing doctors to prescribe cannabis for medical use – with just 12% opposing. Support was fairly even across the parties with 73% of Tory voters giving their support. In…

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If there was a CON leadership contest tomorrow my money would go on Javid and Hunt

18/6/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Betdata.io Theresa’s travails on Brexit over the past week have made it that bit less possible that she’ll survive as leader and PM to Brexit and beyond. I thought John Rentoul summed this up right in the Indy: “Until this week, I assumed May would be the prime minister who took us out of the EU in March. Her strategy of delay, procrastination and attrition isn’t pretty, and risks cutting the Brexit deadline fine, but it seemed to be working….

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LAB continues to have double digit lead on the NHS but the gap is narrowing

17/6/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Will TMay’s latest move make it even better for her? A few weeks ago at PMQs Jeremy Corbyn reminded the PM that in the 1947/48 period when the NHS legislation was going through parliament it had been opposed by the Tories. That such a line can still resonate 70 years on is really quite remarkable and highlights the ongoing vulnerability that the Conservatives have on the National Health Service. The National Health Service has always been a LAB issue and…

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Tipping point. Why Scotland’s ultimate independence now looks inevitable

17/6/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Wednesday was not one of those days when it was difficult to tell the difference between a ray of sunshine and a Scotsman with a grievance. The SNP launched a choreographed flounce from the House of Commons following a spat between their leader Ian Blackford and the Speaker over the treatment of Scotland’s position in the Brexit debates. The government was quick to accuse the SNP of pulling a stunt and of manufacturing discontent. It’s certainly true that the SNP haven’t exactly…

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Lady Chope and their daughter must be so proud of Sir Christopher

16/6/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Is TMay having second thoughts about giving him a knighthood? One thing’s for sure – the MP for Christchurch who was knighted in the last New Year’s Honours, is going to get a lot more media coverage following his blocking on Friday of the private member’s bill to stop what’s known as upskirting. It is being argued on his behalf that this was more than about the issue itself but that he, and fellow CON MP, Phillip Davies took their…

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Britain’s brittle stalemate

16/6/2018 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

Lewisham East reveals the essential weakness of all three national parties Interpreting by-election results is very much in the eye of the beholder. Some, it’s true, are unambiguous in their outcome for one party or another. Lewisham East is not one such. Labour can happily chalk up that they got the job done without fuss. They won the seat and no clear challenger arose. However, it was nothing like a ringing endorsement. The turnout was dire (only the 16th occasion…

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