Is she going to be able to survive?
Over the past year I’ve had a pretty good record with my political bets which have come to fruition. I was on the Democrats in the Alabama and Pennsylvania special elections and, of course, backed the LDs to beat the Tories in last week’s by-election. I lost on the Arizona special election and my long-shot for the Tory leadership, Damian Green, fell by the wayside earlier in the year.
My other significant losing bet was on the above market – TMay’s exit dates. I didn’t think she would survive 2017 which, much against many predictions, she did. Her resilience has been and still is remarkable.
The latest machinations over the Brexit bill and the House of Lords vote have once again pushed this year into the favourites slot on Betfair for the year when Theresa May ceases to be Prime Minister but I’ve not been tempted.
The odds, though, are not that tight and this is moving about a fair bit depending on how successful the parliamentary moves are for her.
My reading of the prime minister is that she has no very fixed views on the sort of Brexit she would like. What she wants to do is to achieve that which she said she would and take the country out of the European Union at the end of next March as planned. Everything is about what’s expedient so deals will be done and then undone as she seeks to get from one day to the next.
Her problem remains – the massive gulf that has dominated Tory politics for a quarter of a century over Europe.
The only circumstance that would lead her to going early is if there a commonality of interest between both sides of the party for a new leader.