Amazingly TMay makes it to the long summer recess and she’s still there

Amazingly TMay makes it to the long summer recess and she’s still there

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Betdata.io The confidence motion threat was all piss and wind from the Brexiteers Today has been a very important milestone because Parliament has risen for the summer recess and Mrs May is still Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party. Giving the a long time table of a Conservative leadership election it is hard to see how Mrs May can be ousted and for a successor to be in place in 2018. The chances are now that her exit…

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Corbyn’s Brexit speech isn’t going to endear him to large parts of LAB’s voting base

Corbyn’s Brexit speech isn’t going to endear him to large parts of LAB’s voting base

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Corbyn is going full Trump: "… a "build it in Britain" speech, in which Mr Corbyn will also attack the use of "cheap labour from abroad" and demand government contracts are kept in Britain instead of being given to "companies outside the UK".https://t.co/Jee3gZ2n3R — David Hirsh (@DavidHirsh) July 24, 2018

The long tail. Looking at the rise of populism

The long tail. Looking at the rise of populism

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Here's the polling for the primary populist right party in 15 western European countries from 2005 to June 2018 (part of upcoming paper by @AndrewPGeddes and me). Draw your own conclusions ? pic.twitter.com/1eqS9bF2wr — James Dennison (@JamesRDennison) July 19, 2018 I am one of the 42% @YouGov https://t.co/2Z42Y06TFv pic.twitter.com/9zPH35Skgr — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) July 23, 2018 A spectre is haunting Europe: the spectre of populism. All the powers of old Europe has entered into a holy alliance to exorcise this…

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TMay sees a huge drop in her YouGov leader ratings in three months

TMay sees a huge drop in her YouGov leader ratings in three months

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The Brexit splits are costing her and her party dear The chart above sets it out clearly the dramatic collapse that Mrs May has seen in her YouGov Well/Badly leader ratings since the start of April. I’ve been following these ratings for years and cannot recall a fall by such a large amount over such a short period for any leader. Of course she faces a huge challenge and it would be very difficult for any leader to negotiate his…

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Is there life after Brexit?

Is there life after Brexit?

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Chou en-Lai is supposed to have said that his assessment of the French Revolution was “It is too early to tell.” Sadly, this appears to have been a misunderstanding, but the agreeably placid sentiment was echoed by Jacob Rees-Mogg this week. Asked if he’d resign if Brexit turned out badly, he said it might take 50 years before the full impact was apparent. Well, that solves the Rees-Mogg resignation issue, but more generally the public seem unlikely to want to…

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After just a year in the job Cable comes under pressure

After just a year in the job Cable comes under pressure

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Mail reporting LD plot to swap Vince Cable, 75, for Layla Moran, 35 https://t.co/BwUBULHXuN via @MailOnline — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 22, 2018 Could he be the first party leader out? I have no idea whether the Mail story linked to in the tweet above is correct but there’s little doubt that Cable’s failure to participate in one of the key Commons votes of this Parliament has raised a few eyebrows something that’s been exacerbated by the narrowness of outcome….

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While the Tories tear themselves apart on Brexit LAB’s new antisemitism policy threatens a divide between the NEC and the party at Westminster

While the Tories tear themselves apart on Brexit LAB’s new antisemitism policy threatens a divide between the NEC and the party at Westminster

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Just at a time when the Tories are totally split on Brexit LAB'S s divide on anti-semitism get widerhttps://t.co/T8UkCnGdWE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 21, 2018 There’s a new poll from YouGov out this morning which has Labour’s lead down to just 1% if BoJo was CON leader. This coincides with the renewed row within Corbyn’s Labour over anti-semitism following the decision of the party’s national executive committee to trim down the widely regarded definition of what anti-semitism is. This…

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