Amazingly TMay makes it to the long summer recess and she’s still there

Amazingly TMay makes it to the long summer recess and she’s still there

The confidence motion threat was all piss and wind from the Brexiteers

Today has been a very important milestone because Parliament has risen for the summer recess and Mrs May is still Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party.

Giving the a long time table of a Conservative leadership election it is hard to see how Mrs May can be ousted and for a successor to be in place in 2018. The chances are now that her exit date will be 2019 or later.

As we all know she has been treading on very thin ice since June the 9th last year when her election gamble went badly wrong and the Tories lost their majority. But in spite of the precariousness of her position she’s clung on because there is no obvious alternative and it is she who is leading the effort on the terms for Britain’s departure from the EU.

It has been a pretty turbulent year parliamentary year with quite a few cabinet exits, her excruciatingly awful conference speech last October and the hardline Brexiteers still biting at her heels. But she is still there.

The chart above shows the changes in the Theresa May exit year market on Betfair in recent weeks you can see by the movement that this has been pretty active. I’m just wondering whether laying (that’s betting against) 2018 at the current odds might still be value.

Mike Smithson

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