And so to the World Cup and the Croatia match
Let’s hope they will be celebrating like this tonight
LAB voters have become much less enamoured with their leader since GE2017
The stance on antisemitism, Brexit or are other factors at play? The chart above shows the net satisfaction ratings for Jeremy Corbyn from Ipsos MORI in every published poll since the last general election. Note how this was remaining relatively solid until April this year when there was a dramatic drop which has remained. The trend refelects as well with Labours position in the national voting polls. From the general election until mid March Corbyn’s team were doing pretty well…
For all the machinations of the past few days the betting is still on this Parliament running its full course
Betdata.io It is hard to see the mechanics of an earlier election Almost inevitably whenever there are big political developments taking place people start to speculate about whether there could be an early general election. It is certainly possible that should Mrs May fail to survive then her successor as Conservative leader might want to cement his or her position with the country by going early. There is no constitutional reason at all why a new leader would have to…
PB Video Analysis: UK Property – What’s It Worth?
In my last video – Castles of Sand? – I discussed the specific drivers behind UK, and specifically London, property prices. This video is a little different. In this, I ask how properties should be valued, and how they have been valued, looking at rental yields, income multiples and other factors. I also ask whether London, as a “Global City” is simply different. Robert Smithson Robert tweets as ‘@MarketWarbles’ Follow @MarketWarbles Tweet
Punters still make a 2018 exit for TMay the favourite but the price edges down a notch
Betdata.io For the first time in several months British political betting markets have become the most actively traded on the Betfair Exchange politics section. The busiest is the market featured above on which year Theresa May will eventually step down. As can be seen it moved sharply upwards early yesterday morning when news of the David Davis resignation filtered out and since then it’s sort of holding stable though still about four percentage points down on where it was. So…
NEW EMERGENCY PB / POLLING MATTERS PODCAST: Bye Bye Boris and what happens next?
On a special episode of the PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss a momentous 24 hours in Westminster that has seen both David Davis and Boris Johnson resign. Keiran and Leo ask what happens next and look at what polling of Tory members by YouGov tells us about the future direction of the Conservative Party and who might come to lead it. Follow this week’s guests Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @LeoBarasi Tweet
A better ‘ole
Reflections on the dramatic events When I was a child, we used to visit my maternal grandparents most Sundays. I learned my love of card games and Scrabble there, including the importance of seating: my grandpa would cheat to ensure my grandma won (she was a shocking loser and he knew which side his bread was buttered). Sunday tea was an institution, my grandma slipping Ben her fat golden Labrador little treats from her plate when she thought no one…
It looks as though TMay could be facing a confidence vote
Whispers Tory MP s have reached the magic number of the 48 letters required to force a confidence vote – no way of knowing yet if true – meeting at 5.30 — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) July 9, 2018 On Betfair she’s odds-on to go this year What a day with “Fuck Business” Johnson quitting as Foreign Secretary and reports now that the required total of 48 CON MPs to demand a confidence vote on TMay has been reached. The betting…