The stance on antisemitism, Brexit or are other factors at play?
The chart above shows the net satisfaction ratings for Jeremy Corbyn from Ipsos MORI in every published poll since the last general election. Note how this was remaining relatively solid until April this year when there was a dramatic drop which has remained.
The trend refelects as well with Labours position in the national voting polls. From the general election until mid March Corbyn’s team were doing pretty well with leads over the Tories in most of the public surveys. Then it shifted down in late March where it has stayed
One of the dangers in polling analysis is to equate correlation with causation but two main political developments have had happened in the period: the increased clamour within the LAB movement over the party’s Brexit position and and, of course, antisemitism.
The latter became headline news towards the end of March when Corbyn’s approving comments on what was clearly an antisemitic mural was highlighted and sparked off demonstrations against the party and him. Since then we have had the efforts by LAB to narrow the definition of antisemitism which has produced a huge negative response from the Jewish Communities and others concerned with the issue.
We saw in the May local elections in London that the party did very badly in areas with largest Jewish communities and, in spite of a strong polling position in the capital failed to take a single Council.
I’m far from convinced that LAB would win a general election if it were to be called in the coming months.