For the first time in several months British political betting markets have become the most actively traded on the Betfair Exchange politics section. The busiest is the market featured above on which year Theresa May will eventually step down.
As can be seen it moved sharply upwards early yesterday morning when news of the David Davis resignation filtered out and since then it’s sort of holding stable though still about four percentage points down on where it was.
So far we haven’t had what would be the trigger to her departure. This is a demand from 48 conservative MPs for a confidence motion. Under the party’s rules that have been operating since William Hague’s time the way to oust a leader is to have majority of CON MPs supporting a no confidence motion
In that situation the incumbent has to step down and cannot put him or herself forward in the ensuing leadership contest. This is very different from what happened when Mrs Thatcher was ousted in 1990.
The second busiest market is on her successor where there has been little movement. Sajid Javid remains favourite with Rees-Mogg in second place. The only real move has been on Dominic Raab the new BrexSec who is now rated as having about a 6% chance.