A week after Helsinki and Trump’s ratings remain solid
RCP The more he’s attacked the more his bases backs him. Only cloud on the horizon – he’s losing independents
TMay sees a huge drop in her YouGov leader ratings in three months
The Brexit splits are costing her and her party dear The chart above sets it out clearly the dramatic collapse that Mrs May has seen in her YouGov Well/Badly leader ratings since the start of April. I’ve been following these ratings for years and cannot recall a fall by such a large amount over such a short period for any leader. Of course she faces a huge challenge and it would be very difficult for any leader to negotiate his…
Is there life after Brexit?
Chou en-Lai is supposed to have said that his assessment of the French Revolution was “It is too early to tell.” Sadly, this appears to have been a misunderstanding, but the agreeably placid sentiment was echoed by Jacob Rees-Mogg this week. Asked if he’d resign if Brexit turned out badly, he said it might take 50 years before the full impact was apparent. Well, that solves the Rees-Mogg resignation issue, but more generally the public seem unlikely to want to…
After just a year in the job Cable comes under pressure
Mail reporting LD plot to swap Vince Cable, 75, for Layla Moran, 35 https://t.co/BwUBULHXuN via @MailOnline — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 22, 2018 Could he be the first party leader out? I have no idea whether the Mail story linked to in the tweet above is correct but there’s little doubt that Cable’s failure to participate in one of the key Commons votes of this Parliament has raised a few eyebrows something that’s been exacerbated by the narrowness of outcome….
While the Tories tear themselves apart on Brexit LAB’s new antisemitism policy threatens a divide between the NEC and the party at Westminster
Just at a time when the Tories are totally split on Brexit LAB'S s divide on anti-semitism get widerhttps://t.co/T8UkCnGdWE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 21, 2018 There’s a new poll from YouGov out this morning which has Labour’s lead down to just 1% if BoJo was CON leader. This coincides with the renewed row within Corbyn’s Labour over anti-semitism following the decision of the party’s national executive committee to trim down the widely regarded definition of what anti-semitism is. This…
My 270/1 shot for the White House indicates that he might run
Watch out for John Hickenlooper – Governor of Colorado Back in early April I reported that I’d backed Governor John Hickenlooper for the presidency at odds of 270/1 on Betfair. One of the things about super long-shots is that you generally don’t know when you place your bet whether your man/woman will actually make a bid. So today’s strong indication that he is considering putting his hat into the ring is a big step forward. I’d first noticed Hickenlooper a…
A week is a long time in politics
Corporeal wonders just what we’ve done to deserve our current political situation. History repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as farce. Then after that, and if we are being punished for some serious crimes committed in a previous life, it descends into whatever this is. I’ve been trying to crowbar an article around a Groundhog day analogy, since every week recently has seemed so depressingly familiar. Theresa May has established herself (for lack of a worse word) as a career…
The places where people would most like to live mostly voted Remain
Away from Brexit for moment with some polling on what are seen as Britain’s desirable locations to live. With Channel 4 going through a process of choosing a location outside London for a new creative hub YouGov have been carrying out the polling which no doubt will prove controversial. On my Twitter feed it was observed that most of the top choices all voted remain at the referendum. You have to go down to 9th place, Nottingham to find a…