Looking ahead to the 2018 Nobel Peace Prize winner

Looking ahead to the 2018 Nobel Peace Prize winner

I suppose it's good that they are getting rid of the nukes and all that, but it's not much good for this year's Nobel Peace Prize betting market. pic.twitter.com/o9Ahh6UQoF — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) April 27, 2018 Why I think the Nobel Committee will blow an ill wind for Trump Following this week’s events on the Korean peninsula you can see why Kim and Moon are the favourites to win the award. I’m going to avoid this market from Ladbrokes as…

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Ladbrokes make Michael Gove favourite to succeed Rudd as HomeSec

Ladbrokes make Michael Gove favourite to succeed Rudd as HomeSec

But would TMay really appoint him? The firm’s prices are here:- Next Home Secretary Michael Gove 4/1 Jeremy Hunt 6/1 James Brokenshire 8/1 Diane Abbott 8/1 Damian Hinds 10/1 David Gauke 10/1 Jacob Rees-Mogg 10/1 Karen Bradley 10/1 12/1 bar At this stage I’m certainly not betting on this market. Firstly we don’t know whether Amber Road will indeed be leaving and the chances are that she will be staying although she could be in a pickle if it is…

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Amber warning: Rudd is safe – for now

Amber warning: Rudd is safe – for now

Labour’s front-bench inexperience has been shown up as much as Rudd’s errors Politics is not just showbiz for ugly people; it’s also sport for the energetic, enthusiastic, passionate but physically average. Although virtually all politicians go into it because they believe strongly in at least some aspects of what their party stands for and because they want to see the reforms they champion implemented, most also simply enjoy practising politics – the camaraderie of (and rivalry within) the teams, the…

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Michael Gove looks as though he has his eye on Theresa’s job

Michael Gove looks as though he has his eye on Theresa’s job

Now a clear third in the betting behind Moggsy & BoJo The machinations in the Conservative Party about Brexit and Windrush has set off a little bit of a flurry of betting on the next party leader market which is currently the busiest UK politics market on Betfair. The beleaguered Home Secretary, Amber Rudd, has now slipped down to be a 3% chance. Meanwhile Michael Gove has edged up to a clear 3rd place on a 7% chance. He’s behind…

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Tonight’s PB/Polling Matters podcast featuring Professor Colin Rallings

Tonight’s PB/Polling Matters podcast featuring Professor Colin Rallings

On this week’s podcast Keiran Pedley is joined by Professor Colin Rallings of the University of Plymouth to look ahead to next week’s local elections. Rallings breaks down which results to look out for and what they might mean for the future with some interesting insight into how the UKIP vote continues to unwind across the country and how Labour might do in London following today’s YouGov poll for Queen Mary University. Keiran Pedley Follow @KeiranPedley Tweet

After all the wait the YouGov London local poll has just margin of error changes

After all the wait the YouGov London local poll has just margin of error changes

So we are almost back where we were UPDATED The big story from the poll is that there has been a disproportionate drop in the LAB vote in inner London. Labour 59 (down 8 from Feb) Cons 22 (up 5) This puts into question whether the red team can take Wandsworth which is a key target and one which has remained in Tory hands for 40 years. It also, if the poll is right means that Westminster will remain Tory….

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Ahead of this morning’s YouGov London poll what happened at the capital’s last elections and the Feb 2018 poll

Ahead of this morning’s YouGov London poll what happened at the capital’s last elections and the Feb 2018 poll

With so little polling or other hard data ahead of next Thursday’s elections there’s a lot of focus this morning on the new YouGov London Poll from YouGov for QMUL. As can be seen the February survey suggested that Labour were going to make huge gains and it was on this that the early betting and predictions have been made. There has been a suggestion that the latest survey is going to be nothing like as good for Labour hence…

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