Another day goes by and still 48 CON MPs have not sent letters demanding a TMay confidence ballot

Another day goes by and still 48 CON MPs have not sent letters demanding a TMay confidence ballot

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If its like the IDS ousting the first signs will be on Betfair Since the Conservative Party introduced its new leadership roles while William Hague was in charge the procedure for getting rid of the incumbent has only been used once. That was, of course, the ousting of Iain Duncan Smith in October 2003. What was intriguing about that dismissal was that the events behind closed doors in Westminster were largely being reflected on Betfair. Like now there were two…

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At a 70%+ chance the betting markets are surely over-rating Trump’s chances of being the WH2020 GOP nominee

At a 70%+ chance the betting markets are surely over-rating Trump’s chances of being the WH2020 GOP nominee

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The best post-Helsinki bets? Judging by the reaction in the US overnight Donald Trump’s meeting with Vladimir Putin has gone down like a like a bowl of cold sick most strikingly within his own party. He’s been damaged. There’s no point in me repeating here the wide coverage that we’ve seen but question for punters, surely, is what are the best Trump bets. There are, as we know, many markets. Will he complete a full first term? (Betfair 74%) What…

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Trump appearing deferential to Putin isn’t going to help him win WH2020

Trump appearing deferential to Putin isn’t going to help him win WH2020

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Given the initial US media reaction, even that from Fox News, the President isn’t getting good coverage for his historic meeting with Putin. This was from former Republican cabdidate and current Senator, John McCain: “Today’s press conference in Helsinki was one of the most disgraceful performances by an American president in memory. The damage inflicted by President Trump’s naiveté, egotism, false equivalence, and sympathy for autocrats is difficult to calculate. But it is clear that the summit in Helsinki was…

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TMay caves in to the Brexit Taliban over Chequers plan

TMay caves in to the Brexit Taliban over Chequers plan

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May rejects claim accepting Tory Brexiter amendments means 'Chequers deal now dead' https://t.co/tzNxFys2Hv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 16, 2018 Moggsy now appears to running the Brexit show Totally agree with what @DavidHerdson has written here about Mrs May accepting the ERG amendments. pic.twitter.com/FGexPLIib6 — TSE (@TSEofPB) July 16, 2018 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

LAB takes clear leads in the GB polls but Scotland remains a problem

LAB takes clear leads in the GB polls but Scotland remains a problem

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Wikipedia Just 8 years ago it won 41 Scottish seats – latest polls have that down to 1 The two GB polls over the weekend from Deltapoll and Opinium were both very good for LAB showing clear leads which weren’t down to its share increasing but the biggest shares for UKIP since GE2017. Certainly based on these figures if there was an early general election then Corbyn’s party would be in a strong position to become top party although an…

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The hold that Putin holds over Trump could be revealing that the Russians did try to fix WH2016

The hold that Putin holds over Trump could be revealing that the Russians did try to fix WH2016

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Straight from Russia’s undoubted success in staging the World Cup the biggest news today will be the secret meeting in Helsinki between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. Normally when leaders meet they have aides with them but not so this meeting and this has set up a whole series of rumours and speculation. There are all sorts of theories around about the hold that the Russian president has over the occupant of the White House and, of course, it has…

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The Tory leadership – an alternative view

The Tory leadership – an alternative view

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Ian Whittaker on why Esther McVey might be the one to watch David’s piece yesterday was very insightful on the mechanics for how a new Conservative leader could be elected. I wanted to add a few thoughts on what has happened over the past week, and what are the betting implications on the political front. First of all, standing back, the last week has been, objectively, a disaster for Theresa May. That may seem harsh and it puts me odd…

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PB Video Analysis. Brexit: How We Got Here & What We Want

PB Video Analysis. Brexit: How We Got Here & What We Want

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So: Brexit. I’ve artfully avoided addressing it in my videos so far, but the time has come. Today’s video is about Brexit. Specifically, it addresses the process through which Britain joined the EEC, and then asks what the UK government actually wants from negotiations. Why have there been all these gyrations, when the EU has proposed a CETA/South Korea type relationship already? Be warned: this video will be equally annoying to Remainers and Leavers. Robert Smithson Robert tweets as ‘@MarketWarbles’…

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