A big August polling development has been the restoration of TMay’s double digit “best PM” lead

A big August polling development has been the restoration of TMay’s double digit “best PM” lead

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I love tables like the one from YouGov featured above showing the trend in responses to a political tracker question. This one is on who would make the best prime minister and what seems quite striking is that Theresa May has held up pretty well apart from July when her numbers slipped following the critical response to the Chequers agreement. The big mover, of course, has been the Labour leader Mr Corbyn who has seen a fair amount of slip…

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The Brexit Irish issue: Moggsy’s plan slammed by Ex-British Army officer who served there

The Brexit Irish issue: Moggsy’s plan slammed by Ex-British Army officer who served there

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https://youtu.be/KfI9VrbFI2E The CON MP ” fundamentally misunderstands” Ireland’s history There are several interesting elements of The Moggster’s latest contribution to the Brexit debate. First, he has shown that he understands that the land border in Northern Ireland is a critical issue in the Brexit negotiations. Secondly, he has shown, by harking back to the Troubles with such breezy insouciance, that he fundamentally misunderstands the history of the island of Ireland. And thirdly, in telling us that no checks on the border…

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PB Video Analysis: Will Donald Trump be Re-Elected in 2020?

PB Video Analysis: Will Donald Trump be Re-Elected in 2020?

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdakzE5R9n8 So, after many economics and finance related posts, I thought why not do a politics one? It’s a simple question: will President Trump be re-elected in 2020? But while the answer will – Schrodinger’s cat-like – resolve itself when the box is opened in two years time, for now the answer is unknowable. Which is the stronger force: an improving economy or the drip, drip of scandals? What matters more: who the Democrats choose or whether inflation returns? And…

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2019 now rated as a 44% chance as the year that TMay ceases to be PM

2019 now rated as a 44% chance as the year that TMay ceases to be PM

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Betdata.io Could she go all the way to 2022? This is one of those betting markets that we return to time and time again. Because clearly there cannot be a leadership contest without a vacancy and at the moment Theresa May is sticking in there and looks reasonably certain to remain until Brexit. I find it somewhat amusing when I get correspondence from bookmakers and Boris backer, Arron Banks, alerting me to a leadership fight within the next 3 months….

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Just 19% of LAB voters believe Israel’s more to blame for the lack progress on Middle East peace than the Palestinians

Just 19% of LAB voters believe Israel’s more to blame for the lack progress on Middle East peace than the Palestinians

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Sure the Deltapoll for Prospect finds that three times as many LAB voters than CON ones blame Israel but it is the huge “both equally” numbers that are a surprise. Here as the chart shows there’s really not that much difference between supporters of the two main parties and the whole sample. This does suggest at the very minimum that this is far from the top of most people’s concerns. Given the polling it is hard to disagree with Martin…

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What happens next if not much happens?

What happens next if not much happens?

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Like the media, we are attracted to drama. What if Trump is impeached? What if No Deal Brexit leads to economic meltdown? What if both major parties split? What if the EU collapses? But what if none of that happens? The instinct of people in power is to avoid chaos on their watch if possible. Cans are kicked down the road. Fudge is prepared in industrial quantities. Suppose that rule applies here, specifically to Brexit. A deal is done in…

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Allies of Boris worried that Tory MPs will practice safe X to avoid waking up with a dumb blonde

Allies of Boris worried that Tory MPs will practice safe X to avoid waking up with a dumb blonde

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Tory bosses urged to change leadership rules so Boris Johnson will have a better chance of being next PM https://t.co/NJvTscWK9n — Sun Politics (@SunPolitics) August 19, 2018 As long as MPs exclusively control who the final two candidates sent to the members are the leadership ambitions of Boris are set to be unfulfilled. For me the most interesting political story this week from a British standpoint was the desire of some supporters of Boris wishing to change the Tory leadership…

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New polling analysis finds that enthusiasm for Brexit amongst working class voters is fading

New polling analysis finds that enthusiasm for Brexit amongst working class voters is fading

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Ammunition for those pressing for a change in LAB’s stance? The data in this chart above has been extrapolated by the political scientist, Prof Matt Goodwin and shows a pretty clear picture about the view on Brexit amongst the C2DEs – working class voters. It was this group, of course, that turned most strikingly against staying in the EU during the referendum campaign so any change here could have some political significance. I congratulate Matt on picking up the trend…

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