A Labour split would have one chance to succeed – but succeed it could

A Labour split would have one chance to succeed – but succeed it could

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FPTP is not an insuperable barrier in the right conditions Anyone remember the Pro Euro Conservatives? The Party was formed by two former Tory MEPs opposed to the direction that William Hague was taking the party on Europe. After a good deal more media interest than was due for a tiny splinter party – mainly, presumably, because it allowed a new angle on the never-ending internal Tory conflict on Europe – they polled 1.3% at the 1999 European elections, lost…

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Be thankful you are not a LAB party press officer having to make excuses for the leader day after day

Be thankful you are not a LAB party press officer having to make excuses for the leader day after day

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Why the latest on Corbyn and Jewish people is different – good from @Dannythefink https://t.co/3LY6vpDWNg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 24, 2018 What strikes me about Corbyn’s speech is that he’s talking about people who have lived here for a very long tine, but who don’t understand our irony. So obviously they’re not people he considers indigenous, they are the “other.” He’s talking about Jews. This is anti Semitism — Eddie Marsan (@eddiemarsan) August 23, 2018 Danny Finkelstein hits the…

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YouGov finds that the number of LAB voters thinking Brexit is wrong reaches new high

YouGov finds that the number of LAB voters thinking Brexit is wrong reaches new high

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How LAB voters in latest YouGov poll are splitting on Brexit. I think the 76% saying Brexit wrong is the highest yet. pic.twitter.com/zPqhI3nttg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 23, 2018 This could add to the pressure on Corby as we move to conference season The big issue within LAB that’s going to cause problems for the leadership at next month’s conference is the pressure for another referendum. It’s been quite amazing that Corbyn has been able to sustain a position…

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Irrespective of whether there’s an impeachment move it’s going to be harder for Trump to win again at WH2020

Irrespective of whether there’s an impeachment move it’s going to be harder for Trump to win again at WH2020

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Three points about Trump:1) Virtually no one who didn't vote for Trump in 2016 is for him today;2) About 37% of Trump's 2016 voters are ambivalent about him and are far from hard core;3) Cohen's implication of Trump will have a corrosive effect on those ambivalent Trump voters — Geoff Garin (@geoffgarin) August 22, 2018 Is there value betting that he won’t be re-nominated? It is hard to take any other view than that the last few days have not…

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If Corbyn’s LAB can make progress in Scotland there are some easy SNP pickings

If Corbyn’s LAB can make progress in Scotland there are some easy SNP pickings

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Table – Commons Library But recent polls suggest LAB will lose Scottish seats The Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, is in Scotland for a big speech at today’s Edinburgh television festival and more importantly to try to revive the party north of the border where under Ed Miliband in 2015 it was virtually wiped out. Then LAB’s Scottish contingent of MPs was reduced from 41 seats to a single MP. At the general election last year some recovery was made and…

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Labour Post-Corbyn: Is there hope for Labour’s moderates?

Labour Post-Corbyn: Is there hope for Labour’s moderates?

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For all the controversy over anti-Semitism and Jeremy Corbyn’s curious selection of international friends, there seems little doubt that Corbyn’s position as Labour leader is secure. Losing a vote of confidence amongst his own MPs by 172 to 40 didn’t dislodge him, and since then his position has been strengthened by the GE2017 campaign. Accusations of anti-Semitism and terrorist sympathies are water off a duck’s back. However, it doesn’t follow that he will remain leader for an extended period. If…

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ICM poll: Tories would be worse off if either BoJo or Moggsy succeeds TMay

ICM poll: Tories would be worse off if either BoJo or Moggsy succeeds TMay

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Tories better off with May than any other leader, poll suggests | Politics | The Guardian https://t.co/gf5TKz7zs9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 22, 2018 And the Washington Post describes TMay as “A Great PM” Those of us who were around following the polls in 2007 remember how the succession of Gordon Brown as Labour leader was going to undermine the red team. Poll after poll found LAB’s position deteriorating when Brown name was mentioned and I certainly took that on…

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