2019 now rated as a 44% chance as the year that TMay ceases to be PM

2019 now rated as a 44% chance as the year that TMay ceases to be PM


Could she go all the way to 2022?

This is one of those betting markets that we return to time and time again. Because clearly there cannot be a leadership contest without a vacancy and at the moment Theresa May is sticking in there and looks reasonably certain to remain until Brexit.

I find it somewhat amusing when I get correspondence from bookmakers and Boris backer, Arron Banks, alerting me to a leadership fight within the next 3 months. Theresa May is not going to go of her own accord. She has a sense of duty to see Brexit through and that means no movement before March 29th next year.

While Mr Johnson is seen as the likely successor, at least by the betting markets, then not enough Tory MPs are going to support a move that would oust Mrs May. Stick with Nurse. She’s safe because the alternative is seen as far far worse. But will that pertain beyond March 29th?

I just wonder what is going to happen next year, So many Conservative MPs have said that there’s no chance that she will be allowed to lead the party into another general election campaign given how poorly she performed in the last one. But are they going to oust her and risk someone like publicity-seeking ex-mayor who is loathed by many of his colleagues?

This all reminds me of the 2007-2010 period when all sorts of plans to oust Gordon Brown were reported and none of them came to fruition.

She could even outlast Mr. Corbyn.

Mike Smithson

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