PB Video Analysis: Demographics, First They Lift You Up…

PB Video Analysis: Demographics, First They Lift You Up…

Economically speaking, the last two centuries have been pretty good for much of Europe, North America and Asia. People live longer, are healthier, and are richer than ever before. Before about 1850, economies grew slowly, barely more than a percent a year on a per capita basis. Since 1850, they’ve powered ahead. This spurt is usually attributed to technology – you know, the industrial revolution, electricity, Angry Birds, that kind of thing. But something else also matters: demographics. In short,…

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Some Brexit betting specials

Some Brexit betting specials

As we get closer to Brexit day Paddy Power have some Brexit specials up. The ERG have repeatedly shown themselves to be as impotent as eunuchs, so for all the talk of ousting Mrs May they simply don’t have the numbers so I think out of those bets Mrs May still being PM on the 1st of April 2019 is the best one. I wouldn’t want to touch the 11/5 on another EU referendum before the 1st of April with…

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Who will be Time person of the year 2018?

Who will be Time person of the year 2018?

I’ve been looking at William Hill’s market on who will be the Time person of the year and my tip is out of that lot is Robert Mueller at 25/1. With several convictions, guilty pleas, and assorted plea deals the so called witch hunt is rather effective and hunting down witches. All of this explains Trump’s recent behaviour where he has publicly criticised Jeff Sessions and privately been annoyed at FBI Director James Wray makes me think we’re headed for…

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Twisting on 17: the hardline Leavers’ great gamble

Twisting on 17: the hardline Leavers’ great gamble

Picture credit @DelMody on twitter “Vote Leave, Take Back Control” was the slogan.  This conjured up a vision of a democratic army peacefully occupying Downing Street and resetting the priorities of government to be aligned with the needs of everyday people.  The vision turned out to be a fata Morgana.  The referendum was won by Leave but poor people didn’t rise up and take what’s theirs.  Rather more surprisingly, rich Leavers didn’t rise up and take what’s theirs either.  Some…

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BONUS PB/Polling Matters podcast: What do the boundary commission proposals mean?

BONUS PB/Polling Matters podcast: What do the boundary commission proposals mean?

On a bonus episode of the Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Professor Ron Johnston from the University of Bristol to discuss the Boundary Commission’s proposals this week for reforming parliamentary constituencies in Westminster. Ron explains how it’s all done, the potential implications if the current proposals are adopted and what happens next. Follow @KeiranPedley Tweet

Labour’s gains in Scotland were mostly down to the SNP misplacing nearly half a million voters, not because of some great love for Corbyn.

Labour’s gains in Scotland were mostly down to the SNP misplacing nearly half a million voters, not because of some great love for Corbyn.

The SNP lost nearly half a million votes since the GE2015, Labour only gained fewer than 10,000. For every 48 voters the SNP lost Labour gained only 1 voter. For every 3 voters Lab gained the Scottish Tories gained nearly 100 voters. pic.twitter.com/MpWUQjDkwF — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 11, 2018 Analysing the Corbyn ‘surge’ in Scotland One of the most profitable areas of general election betting in recent elections has been in Scotland, where backing the 2015 SNP tsunami was very…

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If Ted Cruz is running ads like this then I’m concluding his campaign is in trouble

If Ted Cruz is running ads like this then I’m concluding his campaign is in trouble

Ted Cruz is using doctored footage to make it look like Beto O'Rourke supports flag burning (he doesn't) pic.twitter.com/e7d04WK0Dp — NowThis Impact (@nowthisimpact) September 10, 2018 After watching that video above I had one overwhelming thought, Ted Cruz knows he is in trouble in his campaign to hold his Senate seat in Texas. Now why is he in trouble? In 2012 Cruz won Texas by nearly 16% but as we can see from the RCP table, his lead is nowhere…

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Some pretty grim polling in London for the Tories, Labour, and Sadiq Khan

Some pretty grim polling in London for the Tories, Labour, and Sadiq Khan

London Westminster voting intention: LAB: 48% (-7)CON: 26% (-7)LDEM: 15% (+6)GRN: 5% (+3)UKIP: 4% (+3) via @YouGov, 03 – 07 Seph/t @MileEndInst Chgs. w/ 2017 election result. — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) September 10, 2018 Brexit, anti-Semitism, and crime all seem to be having an impact I think the collapse in the Tory and Lab vote shares is down to a mixture of Brexit not appealing to London and the anti-Semitism issues swirling around Labour. For me the most interesting aspect…

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