Many Democrats are viewing the November 6th Midterms in same way Remainers would view a second referendum

Many Democrats are viewing the November 6th Midterms in same way Remainers would view a second referendum

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The Dems lead in generic poll but will that be enough? In 2016 there were two elections which had global reverberations – Brexit and, of course, the election of Donald Trump. Both were close, both were seen as defeats for the liberal establishment and in both those on the losing side would dearly love to see the outcomes thwarted in some way. In the US Midterm election a week on Tuesday those opposed to Trump would dearly like to “clip…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. How important is the economy in driving voting intention?

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. How important is the economy in driving voting intention?

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On this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss the political lay of the land as we approach the budget, what the public think about the economy (and who they trust to run it) and how important the economy is in voting intention terms in a Brexit-dominated 2018. You can listen to the podcast below: Follow this week’s guests: Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @LeoBarasi Tweet

TMay’s great current strength is that there’s little conviction that anyone else could do better

TMay’s great current strength is that there’s little conviction that anyone else could do better

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So another day of Theresa May’s leadership begins and no doubt she will be under pressure yet again by her party and maybe even the official opposition about her stance and approach to Brexit. Later she’s facing the Conservative backbench 1922 committee of which there was some overblown talk over the weekend off this being a “show trial.” That of itself illustrated the schism within the party. Well the rhetoric has been toned down a fair bit and the PM…

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LAB would struggle to win a snap election with 50% of GE2017 LAB voters not rating Corbyn as “best PM”

LAB would struggle to win a snap election with 50% of GE2017 LAB voters not rating Corbyn as “best PM”

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His 50% LAB voter rating compares with 80% of GE2017 Tories for May While all the focus this week has been on TMay’s chances of survival the PM and her party can take comfort in the latest “Best PM” ratings from YouGov in which those polled are given just two options – her and Corbyn. In recent weeks TMay has been regaining her position and is now up from a low of 31% overall naming her to 38%. Corbyn is…

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The new regime at the Daily Mail is going to make it make it harder to oust TMay

The new regime at the Daily Mail is going to make it make it harder to oust TMay

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The Mail turns its fire on the Tory plotters who are trying to oust TMay pic.twitter.com/0EFC8l78w3 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 22, 2018 Now the plotters are being dubbed the “peacocking saboteurs” One of the most important things that happened to British politics this autumn was the change of editors at the Daily Mail. Hardline brexiteer, Sir Paul Dacre, is no longer in the post which is now held by pro-Remain, Geordie Greig. In my post on the ending of…

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Trump’s massive midterms gamble has been to make it about himself. Now he needs to beat expectations

Trump’s massive midterms gamble has been to make it about himself. Now he needs to beat expectations

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Two weeks to go and Trump intensifies his campaigning We are now into the final fortnight of the crucial US midterm elections and the question is whether the Republicans can hold on to both parts of Congress. Certainly the Senate looks pretty strong because of the races that are up this year but holding the House of Representatives is going to be a huge challenge. Congressional generic polls have the Democrats with an average margin of 7.7% and individual local…

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