The Dems lead in generic poll but will that be enough?
In 2016 there were two elections which had global reverberations – Brexit and, of course, the election of Donald Trump. Both were close, both were seen as defeats for the liberal establishment and in both those on the losing side would dearly love to see the outcomes thwarted in some way.
In the US Midterm election a week on Tuesday those opposed to Trump would dearly like to “clip his wings” by overturning the Republican majorities in either or both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Just winning one would considerably impede Trump in his final two years. Having control of the House would also allow possible impeachment proceedings or similar actions.
The RCP Generic Congressional polling average in the chart above shows the Dems in what would appear to be a positive position. Only problem is that they need a big national margin to ensure they have most seats. Gerrymandering of the Congressional District boundaries in Republican controlled states legislatures gives the party an advantage.
- The other Democratic worry about relying on national generic polls is the memory of the WH2016 national Presidential polls which had Hillary with clear margins. It’s what happens in individual district and states that matters
In many states voters will be electing Governors and a whole range of statewide and local elections including to state legislatures. Picking up some of those might allow the Dems to do their own gerrymandering!
This is the first big test for Mr. Trump since winning WH2016 on a minority of the popular vote and the signs are that turnout will be at a much higher level than is normal on non-presidential election voting days.