Two weeks to go and Trump intensifies his campaigning
We are now into the final fortnight of the crucial US midterm elections and the question is whether the Republicans can hold on to both parts of Congress. Certainly the Senate looks pretty strong because of the races that are up this year but holding the House of Representatives is going to be a huge challenge.
Congressional generic polls have the Democrats with an average margin of 7.7% and individual local surveys suggest that the party is doing well and all is pointing to it regaining control of the House.
Trump, who has been throwing everything into the final phase of the battle, has made the election about yourself. Republican voters are told incessantly that a vote for a GOP candidate is a vote for Trump and there’s no doubt that his base is highly energised. But will that be enough? Trump energises Democrats as well but in he opposite direction.
A new WSJ/NBC NEWS poll finds nearly two thirds of registered voters with a high level of interest in the midterm election — the highest ever recorded which points to big turnouts.
What Trump needs to do is to beat expectations. That would mean holding on to the House or restricting the Democrat margin to only a few seats.
If the outcome is worse for the GOP than that then it will send out strong messages that Trump isn’t electoral winner many in the party believe he is.
For the President’s total control over the Republican party is based one simple fact that he seen as somebody who can give them power and hold on to it. The party establishment might be uneasy at aspects of Trumpism but you can’t argue with a sure-fire election winner.
But what happens if the midterms show that his appeal is nothing like as potent as before?