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LAB would struggle to win a snap election with 50% of GE2017 LAB voters not rating Corbyn as “best PM”

23/10/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

His 50% LAB voter rating compares with 80% of GE2017 Tories for May While all the focus this week has been on TMay’s chances of survival the PM and her party can take comfort in the latest “Best PM” ratings from YouGov in which those polled are given just two options – her and Corbyn. In recent weeks TMay has been regaining her position and is now up from a low of 31% overall naming her to 38%. Corbyn is…

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The new regime at the Daily Mail is going to make it make it harder to oust TMay

23/10/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The Mail turns its fire on the Tory plotters who are trying to oust TMay pic.twitter.com/0EFC8l78w3 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 22, 2018 Now the plotters are being dubbed the “peacocking saboteurs” One of the most important things that happened to British politics this autumn was the change of editors at the Daily Mail. Hardline brexiteer, Sir Paul Dacre, is no longer in the post which is now held by pro-Remain, Geordie Greig. In my post on the ending of…

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Trump’s massive midterms gamble has been to make it about himself. Now he needs to beat expectations

22/10/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Two weeks to go and Trump intensifies his campaigning We are now into the final fortnight of the crucial US midterm elections and the question is whether the Republicans can hold on to both parts of Congress. Certainly the Senate looks pretty strong because of the races that are up this year but holding the House of Representatives is going to be a huge challenge. Congressional generic polls have the Democrats with an average margin of 7.7% and individual local…

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In contrast to new reports of a TMay confidence move YouGov give her the highest best PM rating since early June

22/10/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Boost for the PM while the plotters plot This is getting so tiresome in sharp contrast to the PMs recovering poll ratings. It seems like every week at the moment hardline CON Brexiteers are briefing journos that they are very near to getting the 48 letters from MPs demanding a TMay conference vote. The fact that this hasn’t happened shows the weakness of those who want to get rid of her. For the vote to take place is one thing…

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A Nation once again? – Part 3 lessons from abroad

22/10/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

In the final of three articles Alanbrooke looks at Irish affairs There are numerous examples of states being put together in modern times. The closest and probably most studied is Germany. It is almost at 30 years since the wall came down so there is quite a period to look at. The situation is also not that dissimilar to Ireland – a larger more prosperous neighbour takes over its sizeable but smaller struggling neighbour. How has Germany fared? Unity is…

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A Nation once again? Part 2 – Culture and politics

21/10/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

In the second of three articles Alanbrooke looks at Irish affairs In the previous article I looked at economics which is quite a hurdle. This article looks at the longer term issue of the impact of putting two sets of people together. In Ulster the past always lies ahead of us, so somewhere along the line somebody needs to be squaring circles. The North, trapped in its history and with a victim mentality, somehow needs to fit in to a fast…

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A Nation once again ? – Part 1 The economics

21/10/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

In the first of three articles Alanbrooke looks at Irish affairs The fallout from the Brexit vote has led to more interest in the future of Northern Ireland than is usual. In particular the issue of a one state Ireland has bubbled back to the top of the political discussion with, as ever, strong views on either side The modern Irish state is not the Ireland of old; it is a successful, self-confident country which has worked its way to…

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Whatever the numbers today’s march will reinforce both CON and LAB anti-Brexit MPs

20/10/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

This’ll ratchet up the pressure for a “People’s vote” Inevitably there are massively different estimates of how many people have been marching in London today against Brexit but judging by the TV pictures it does seem to be very large. Whether it’s up to the anti Iraq war demonstrations of 2003 I don’t know but it’s still pretty substantial. The organisers are lucky that it is commanding a lot of attention by the media and the pro-Brexiteers who have been…

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