Boost for the PM while the plotters plot
This is getting so tiresome in sharp contrast to the PMs recovering poll ratings. It seems like every week at the moment hardline CON Brexiteers are briefing journos that they are very near to getting the 48 letters from MPs demanding a TMay conference vote.
The fact that this hasn’t happened shows the weakness of those who want to get rid of her. For the vote to take place is one thing – winning a majority no confidence vote in the ballot of MPs is another and they know it. There’s a big difference between the 48 letters and the required 158 CON MPs actually voting for it.
And as we’ve been pointing o TMay’s survival of such a vote would merely reinforce her position and guarantee that there’d be no further challenge for a year.
My view is that TMay might be better advised to allow her supporters to instigate such a vote. This would at least clear the air and give her a degree of certainty. It would also show the weakness of her opponents within the parliamentary party.
What makes a confidence vote difficult for the hardliners is that this might be the way that BoJo or Moggsy becomes leader and PM – options that likely would be opposed by a majority of CON MPs.
The leadership system that the party now has makes it very difficult to detach the confidence vote from the leadership election that would have to follow.
The idea of DDavis coming in is, to my mind, ludicrous. I can see nothing that he’s done that would suggest he’d be any good and he’s not known to be a hard worker.
The latest YouGov just published has CON upto a 5% lead with TMay 14 points ahead of Corbyn as Best PM with her 38% rating the highest since early June.