I suspect Best for Britain might be wrong because last year Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg admitted the voter ID changes were an attempt at voter suppression that backfired he said “Parties that try and gerrymander end up finding their clever scheme comes back to bite them, as, dare I say, we found by insisting on voter ID for elections….We found the people who didn’t have ID were elderly and they, by and large, voted Conservative, so we made it hard for…
Back in 2021 the final Redfield & Wilton poll for the London Mayoral election had Sadiq Khan leading Shaun Bailey, the Tory candidate, by 21% in the first round, Khan’s actual lead in the first round was fewer than 5%. If we have a similar polling failure and with a bit of differential turnout due to Sadiq Khan being the incumbent and people thinking Labour are going to win we could see an upset thanks to the government changing the…
Scandals and misconduct do not come out of nowhere. When people misbehave there is usually a clue, often more than one, usually ignored (even if carefully collected and correctly filed) or hand-waved away as unimportant (see the Angiolini Report on Wayne Couzens, for instance). The same applies to scandals involving organisations and actions (or a lack of action) by many people. There were warnings; there were whistleblowers; people were told. Coupled with this is a failure to take this information…
It is astonishing to think that as we approach the tenth anniversary of when the wise Scots rejected secession and division we have the first proper* YouGov poll since before the referendum to show Labour ahead of the SNP in Westminster voting intentions. Labour used to dominate Scottish politics like a dominatrix whose client didn’t have a safe word and I still maintain the most astonishing election result this century in the UK was in 2015 when Labour went from…
Last week it was announced that the Blackpool South by-election will take place on the same day as the local elections and I wonder if the by-election is what, rather than the locals, triggers a vote of confidence in Sunak. If the Tories finish behind Reform that might spread blind panic amongst Tory MPs that this is happening so close to a general election. As far as I can see only Smarkets have a betting market on the by-election but…
For most people The Handmaid’s Tale is a book/film/tv show but for the Republican Party is seems to be an instruction manual which is why I believe Biden will win in November in part thanks to abortion. This hard hitting advert from Biden shows the cruelty of the changes to the abortion laws in America and I expect it will get even Biden sceptic Dems out voting in November when he reminds them of Trump boasting about the changes he…
If as expected Sunak leads the Tories to a record breaking defeat, say a 1931 in reverse, he will be pilloried for that but as Professor Curtice points the real architects of the defeat are Boris Johnson and Liz Truss. As Margaret Thatcher, Sir John Major, and Theresa May can attest you really cannot mess around with the mortgages or houses of the voters, Liz Truss found out that during her brief tenure, and as for Boris Johnson only his…
There’s a poll by YouGov for The Times which shows that even an improving economy will not help the Tories avoid an electoral armageddon which was Sunak’s hope. Voters also expect Labour to increase their taxes but for me the most striking figure from this poll was roughly the same number of people expect Labour to cut taxes than the Tories. It shows how badly the Tory brand has been contaminated that like on defence, Labour are seen better than…