One of the key lessons from 2019 is that no matter how flawed a leader you are, you can still win a healthy general election majority if your opponent is even more flawed and a bigger voter repellant. Whilst this isn’t all on Sunak, this is what happens when you’re leading the governing party of the last fourteen years it still some ‘achievement’ to outdo Jeremy Corbyn. One of the reasons Boris Johnson’s leadership ambitions are over is that towards…
One of things that has a profound impact on betting is what percentage lead do Labour need to win a majority. After the last election the consensus was that Labour needed a lead of around 12% to win a majority of 2 at this election but things have changed. The SNP implosion in North Britain has helped Labour’s vote more efficient, the Tory implosion, and return of anti-Tory tactical vote are several reasons why I expect Labour’s vote to be…
If you think the Lib Dems are going to do better than the polls suggest then this finding from JL Partners will bring you great joy as it shows the Lib Dem vote share rising from 24% to 32% when voters are asked about tactical voting in their specific seats. Like Joe Alder I would caution against accepting this is a gospel as hypothetical polling can be very wrong as the Lib Dems can attest. Back in the run up…
Martyn Ziegler in The Times has this little piece that might explain why Sunak called a July election Rishi Sunak will be hoping that England do well at Euro 2024 because an early exit could be the final nail in the coffin of his dying government. A general election will take place during a major tournament for the first time since 1970 and research carried out by the political scientists has suggested that incumbents get a lift from positive feelings…
I like this analysis by Ben Walker which shows how close the Tories are to a 1931 in reverse result, which notes ‘Britain Predicts finds more than half of the 100-150 seats the Tories are currently forecast to hold will be with majorities of 5pts or less.’ Not only are we a small polling error away from a 1931 in reverse type of result even if the polls do not narrow as they usually do during the campaign. When you…
In the UK we don’t have truly national elections, each general election comprises 650 simultaneous local contests. In theory. In practice the vast majority of voters in the vast majority of seats cast their ballot on the basis of the party, or party leader, they prefer. Most don’t care, and many don’t even know, about their local candidates. That is true in almost every seat. But one of the rare exceptions might throw a stunning curveball on election night. Independent…
It is with great delight I can annonce Sporting Index have opened the seat spreads for the general election. I think Labour are a sell at the moment based on 1997 simply because we might see a rogue/outlier poll or two. In 1997 nine days before election day the gold standard ICM had the Labour lead down to 5%. It might be wiser to buy the Tories, I haven’t fully decided yet. It is not unknown for pollsters to tweak…
Labour activists may never stop arguing about 2017. Was it an almost-victory prevented only by centrist sabotage or a dead cat bounce which proved Jeremy Corbyn couldn’t even beat ‘The Maybot’ with several lucky breaks? Whatever it was, it was the 5th most votes the Labour Party has ever won. Corbyn won more votes than Clement Attlee in 1945 or Tony Blair in 2001. Could he win more than Starmer in 2024/25? Actually, he could. Electoral Equations Obviously Corbyn’s result…