With “cabinet resignations” in the air who is going to be first to quit

With “cabinet resignations” in the air who is going to be first to quit

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TMay’s dogged resolve could lead to more exits We are going through turbulent times and there’s little doubt that the next few weeks as we edge closer to March 29th are going to see dramatic developments which are going to be hard to predict. The main story in the Times this morning is that possibly up to 40 ministers could resign if CON MPs are banned from voting on plans to stop a no-deal Brexit. That such threats should be…

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Theresa May – the wrong woman for her time?

Theresa May – the wrong woman for her time?

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So this is how constitutional settlements are brokered: not at a measured pace with Olympian detachment and the wisdom of Solomon but at high speed in a blind funk with a deal cobbled together in shadowy alcoves. It’s not pretty. It’s also something that the Prime Minister must hate. Successful governing politicians who have to answer to the electorate often try to avoid making hard choices. Angela Merkel has been so effective at this that her name has been verbed…

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Kamala Harris, betting favourite for the Democratic nomination, chooses today, Martin Luther King Day, to launch her campaign

Kamala Harris, betting favourite for the Democratic nomination, chooses today, Martin Luther King Day, to launch her campaign

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JUST IN: @KamalaHarris on announcing she will be running for president in 2020: "I feel a responsibility to stand up and fight for who we are." https://t.co/qUX1sERxxZ pic.twitter.com/NcSHFTRIny — Good Morning America (@GMA) January 21, 2019 Will she be able to stop Trump? The big news in the 2020 White House race is that as expected, Kamala Harris has formally announced that she is running for the Democratic nomination, and of course, the presidency. In recent months her star has…

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Why HealthSec Hancock should be factored in as a potential TMay successor

Why HealthSec Hancock should be factored in as a potential TMay successor

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The ambitious Osborne protégé who wasn’t purged by Theresa Over the weekend I’ve been trying to look through other possible contenders for TMay’s job which might become vacant in a matter of weeks or a few months. Who are the dark horses who might be a good punt at long odds? Of all the Tory ministers who have been wheeled out recent weeks to argue the government’s Brexit position two of them, to my mind, stand out. One is the…

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Desperate times. A new way out of the Brexit impasse

Desperate times. A new way out of the Brexit impasse

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8/ So the Government can't pass its deal The Government can't negotiate a new deal There is no Parliamentary support for No Deal The Opposition can't force an election The Tories can't call a Leadership challenge Immovable object meets brick fucking wall pic.twitter.com/qL16HuqMDO — James Graham (@mrJamesGraham) January 16, 2019 The train is hurtling down the track and the cliff edge of 11pm on 29 March 2019 approaches. The overwhelming majority of the House of Commons is unwilling to countenance…

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A 16/1 tip to start off your Sunday

A 16/1 tip to start off your Sunday

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Why I’m betting on Farage to become an MP in 2019 I suspect whatever the outcome on Brexit Nigel Farage will be screaming betrayal as it will not be the precise type of Brexit he wants. I expect that screaming will be heard on Jupiter if Article 50 is extended or revoked. If Parliament does what pre referendum Farage suggested in the event of 52%/48% result in 2016 and hold another referendum then Farage might be very cross. So how…

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Now we’ve got some non-YouGov polls showing CON leads the position looks a tad less good for LAB

Now we’ve got some non-YouGov polls showing CON leads the position looks a tad less good for LAB

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Including the three new polls published tonight all the voting intention surveys so far in 2019 from Wikipedia pic.twitter.com/lzC2jqualW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 19, 2019 With three new voting intention polls out in the past couple of hours this has been the biggest evening for Westminster surveys June 7th 2017 – the day before the last general election. One of the positive things for LAB until this evening is that no other pollster than YouGov had shown a CON…

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A Customs Union deal needs to be on the table if No Deal is to be avoided

A Customs Union deal needs to be on the table if No Deal is to be avoided

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The only way to get Brexit Deal votes is to go softer It’s lonely at the top. It’s probably lonelier if you cut yourself off and isolate yourself from your colleagues, even if they are after their own interests and your own job. This last week has proven just how politically lonely Theresa May is, yet still she carries on. There’s something admirable in that and perhaps it’s no small part of the explanation for the rise in rise in…

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