Chancellor Hammond is right: extending the Article 50 deadline won’t produce a Brexit compromise

Chancellor Hammond is right: extending the Article 50 deadline won’t produce a Brexit compromise

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Hammond this morning on Bloomberg says "there is clearly no majority in Parliament" for a 2nd referendum. Says delaying article 50 would remove the "ticking clock"; "If you take that away, people will keep promoting their preferred outcome rather than seeking compromise" — Tamara Cohen (@tamcohen) January 25, 2019 And why for some No deal is so appealing Good by @TomKibasi from Tues on why no-deal Brexit is so attractive https://t.co/f1OLa7znVd pic.twitter.com/8izswk4wNN — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) January 25, 2019 Mike…

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Corbyn’s reported negativity on a second referendum sends the betting odds down to a 29% chance

Corbyn’s reported negativity on a second referendum sends the betting odds down to a 29% chance

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Brexit betting round-up Betting continues to be running at a high level on all aspects relating to Brexit. Mostly of the markets have stayed pretty consistent over the past few days days. The only one to buck this trend has been the second referendum betting. The chart shows how this is shifted down and this and, undoubtedly, has been affected by the latest reported positioning of Mr Corbyn about what Labour would or would not do. However much the polls…

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Meanwhile in other news

Meanwhile in other news

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More than 175,000 jobs will be lost from struggling high street stores over the next year as the boom in internet shopping hastens their decline, researchers predict https://t.co/NvhwLmDTW3 — The Times and The Sunday Times (@thetimes) January 22, 2019 What’s happening on the High Street & other developments This month, the newspapers, television, radio and social media have been consumed by Brexit. You might have noticed. In other news, Marks & Spencer have announced the closure of another 17 branches….

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Is a no-deal Brexit now the most popular outcome with the public?

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Is a no-deal Brexit now the most popular outcome with the public?

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On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at polling around a no-deal Brexit to see if commentators suggesting that it is the most popular outcome with the public are right. Also featured on this week’s show is a new report by UK in a Changing Europe, which covers a host of topics on Brexit including support for a second referendum and how Brexit identity appears to be trumping party identity. You can find the report here. Listen…

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New polling finds that leaving the EU with the deal is the least unpopular of the options facing the UK

New polling finds that leaving the EU with the deal is the least unpopular of the options facing the UK

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What’s least unpopular might be the way forward Matt Singh of Number Cruncher Politics and a regular guest on the PB/PollingMatters podcast has just produced the above survey for Bloomberg which finds that of the main options facing the UK leaving with the deal has the highest level of net acceptability. My chart above is based on his data. He notes: “Most polling on the Theresa May’s Brexit deal until now has focussed on which outcome to the process the…

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Govey maintaining and extending his lead in the next CON leader betting

Govey maintaining and extending his lead in the next CON leader betting

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Chart Betdata.io Given the precariousness of Theresa May’s position a new Tory leader contest could happen at just about any time. In one sense she is immune from pressure within the party until December because of the failed confidence vote that the rebels triggered and which Theresa May won with a clear margin. The rules state that a leader cannot be challenged again within 12 months but so much is happening at the moment you could see all sorts of…

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The Dems, surely, are. not going to choose someone in their late 70s to oust an incumbent in his mid-70s

The Dems, surely, are. not going to choose someone in their late 70s to oust an incumbent in his mid-70s

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2020 GE:Biden 53% (+12)Trump 41%.Sanders 51% (+10)Trump 41%.Harris 48% (+7)Trump 41%.O'Rourke 47% (+6)Trump 41%.Warren 48% (+6)Trump 42%.Booker 47% (+5)Trump 42%.Gillibrand 47% (+5)Trump 42%@ppppolls 1/19-21https://t.co/MheHlB8QH6 — Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) January 22, 2019 But Biden and Sanders head the polling We are going to see a lot of polling like this over the next 18 months as the Democratic party goes through the prolonged process of choosing who should be the one to block Trump’s second term. Joe Biden, of course, was…

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Brexit looks set to be the biggest non-election political betting even market ever

Brexit looks set to be the biggest non-election political betting even market ever

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Lots of bookies of different sorts have ranges of markets on Brexit from PaddyPower’s “What foodstuffs will be rationed first in 2019?” to the above bet on whether or not the UK will leave the EU on March 29th. What’s been very striking is the level of activity which is building up sharply as we get closer to the date. The Betfair exchange is just about the only one which publishes in real time how much has been agreed on…

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