TMay’s dogged resolve could lead to more exits
We are going through turbulent times and there’s little doubt that the next few weeks as we edge closer to March 29th are going to see dramatic developments which are going to be hard to predict.
The main story in the Times this morning is that possibly up to 40 ministers could resign if CON MPs are banned from voting on plans to stop a no-deal Brexit.
That such threats should be being made is no surprise given the magnitude of what is at stake. The question ministers are facing is how can they put pressure on Mrs. May who seems totally determined to stick to her plan, even if that risks a no deal Brexit. The Times report by Sam Coates notes:
Amber Rudd, the work and pensions secretary, has demanded that all Tory MPs are allowed a free vote on plans that would clear the path for extending Article 50 — the mechanism by which Britain leaves the European Union.
Richard Harrington, the business minister, confirmed yesterday that he would resign if the government pursued a no-deal Brexit.
Margot James, the culture minister, and Tobias Ellwood, the defence minister, were among those said to be considering their positions. Mr Ellwood used Twitter yesterday to call for an extension to Article 50.
Ms Rudd’s intervention suggests that her position could be in doubt if she is barred from voting for the amendment, although her office refused to say whether she would regard it as a resignation issue. Those who are considering resigning include cabinet ministers, junior ministers and ministerial aides..
The one thing we’ve learned about Mrs. May is that she is incredibly rigid in her approach and she is more vulnerable to pressure from Moggsy’s ERG than other parts of the parliamentary party. So on the Ladbroke next cabinet exit list it is perhaps best to focus on those not associated with this faction.
Amber Rudd at 8/1 might be value as would David Gauke at 16/1.
If there are more than one cabinet exits in a day then all those leaving would qualify as winners with the dead heat rules applying reducing your returns. So Gauke might be the best bet.