The one thing we are not getting st the moment is a clear picture from the polls

The one thing we are not getting st the moment is a clear picture from the polls

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So which pollsters’ numbers do you prefer Conference season is now over and we now face the final few months before Britain is scheduled to leave the EU. UK politics is set to go through a period of turmoil and there’s not an insignificant chance that there could be an early general election. Mrs. May’s wonderful dance sequence prior to her Birmingham conference speech might have diverted attention for a short while but decisions that could impact on the nation…

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The Kavanaugh Conclusion: Trump voters own the GOP; he will be nominated in 2020

The Kavanaugh Conclusion: Trump voters own the GOP; he will be nominated in 2020

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Republican Senators fear Trump and his voters more than anything Brett Kavanaugh will almost certainly be confirmed today as the newest member of the US Supreme Court. His behaviour in front of the Senate Committee – aggressive, threatening, overly emotional, highly partisan, evasive – would have been surprising for a nominee to an Executive branch position; as a candidate for the country’s highest court, where you might think that cool minds, sober judgement and lofty impartiality would be called for,…

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If LAB was really concerned about Corbyn’s 2014 Tunisia coverage then complaint documentation deadlines would have been met

If LAB was really concerned about Corbyn’s 2014 Tunisia coverage then complaint documentation deadlines would have been met

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Could the Jewish Telegraph’s coverage have prompted the move? JEWISH TELEGRAPH: Terror wreath: did Corbyn lie? #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/00ITpLm6yL — Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) October 4, 2018 Now LAB’s alleged antisemitism is back on the news agenda LAB asks regulator to reopen cemetery coverage complaint afrer failing to meet deadline for submission of paper https://t.co/wkWge4csjF — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 5, 2018 Yesterday, see top Tweet, the Jewish Telegraph seized on Labour’s failure to follow through on its complaint to the press…

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Given current polls the Tories shouldn’t be spooked by Corbyn but they are

Given current polls the Tories shouldn’t be spooked by Corbyn but they are

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The shockwaves of June 8th 2017 continue The Speccies Isabel Hardman has an excellent piece under the heading “Why the Tories feel so spooked by Jeremy Corbyn”. She argues that some of the messages from the LAB leader have the potential to resonate. She goes on: I understand that the reason Labour has decided to talk so much about the way capitalism has left certain voters behind is that recent polling carried out by the party found it had strong…

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It’s now 1/6 that the Kavanaugh nomination will go through

It’s now 1/6 that the Kavanaugh nomination will go through

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PaddyPower betting A GOP senator who has read FBI report After being briefed by the FBI today and having the opportunity to read the report myself, I am now even more confident in Judge #Kavanaugh’s nomination and fitness for the court. (1/2) — Tim Scott (@SenatorTimScott) October 4, 2018 A Democratic Senator who has also read it I just reviewed the FBI’s #Kavanaugh report. The FBI never interviewed many relevant witnesses. There are also thousands of pages of leads from…

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How the next CON leader betting market has moved since last year’s Conference

How the next CON leader betting market has moved since last year’s Conference

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A Mr. Johnson still favourite but Javid very close I love these historical charts of Betfair trades from Betdata.io and they are particularly interesting when you have events like the party conferences. The man I’m working hard not to call just by his first name is still there in the favourite slot but the big gainers during the year have been the Home Secretary, Sajid Javid, and the BrexSec, Dominic Raab. Both got promotions since the 2017 conference. I’ve never…

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Both main party leaders have seen their ratings decline since the last conference season – Corbyn’s more May’s

Both main party leaders have seen their ratings decline since the last conference season – Corbyn’s more May’s

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Corbyn needs to turn things round for LAB to have a chance The end of the Party Conference season is a good time to look back at the past year through the prism of the Ipsos MORI leader satisfaction ratings. This is part of the longest running polling series in the UK and is now in its fifth decade. As can be seen from the chart both leaders have experienced a marked decline in the levels of satisfaction over the…

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The sum of all fears

The sum of all fears

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Nobody kicks a dead dog, Dale Carnegie noted.  Based on that observation, we can conclude two things from the Conservative party conference.  First, the government is very fearful that a fresh referendum is a runner.  And secondly, Boris Johnson remains a serious and potent threat.  Speaker after speaker at the Conservative party conference lined up to launch an attack on one or other of these. The Prime Minister is at the head of the queue.  She has gone out of…

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