Mrs. May survives the day getting cabinet backing for the deal and there’s been no Vote of Confidence move

Mrs. May survives the day getting cabinet backing for the deal and there’s been no Vote of Confidence move

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On Betfair the money goes on a 2018 TMay exit Betdata.io Well all those who were predicting that today there would be a cabinet rebellion on the Brexit deal and a possible vote of no confidence move against Mrs May have been proved wrong. Yet again the most resilient leader of recent times continues to defy political gravity. The next stage its for this to go to the House of Commons and that might not be as easy as today…

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Good news for TMay: Montgomerie’s backing suggests that the deal has a better chance of being agreed

Good news for TMay: Montgomerie’s backing suggests that the deal has a better chance of being agreed

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Founder of ConHome, @montie backs the deal. https://t.co/3T70zwhIoA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 14, 2018 That the founder ConHome, Tim Montgomerie, has Tweeted that he’s backing the deal suggests that this is going to be less of a struggle for TMay than many thought. A couple of years ago Newsnight described him as “the most famous conservative who is not an MP” and there’s little doubt that he still has a lot of influence particularly as he as always been…

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2019 becomes favourite for year of next general election as punters ponder the EU deal

2019 becomes favourite for year of next general election as punters ponder the EU deal

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After all the waiting this is a massive day for Theresa May and for the country’s relationship with Europe. What I find amazing is the number of MPs and other commentators, declaring that this is a bad deal and they haven’t even seen the document yet. Sobeit. At the end of the day the big question will be how many MPs will be ready to put their heads above the parapet and vote for no deal with all that that…

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The Brexit deal is being put to the Cabinet one by one

The Brexit deal is being put to the Cabinet one by one

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But what are the chances of success? So the brexit process moves a step forward with a broad agreement that Theresa May now has to sell to her cabinet, then her party, and then the House of Commons. Each of these hurdles looks insurmountable but then Theresa May has got over many obstacles in the 18 months since she lost the party its majority and is determined enough to push this as hard as she is able. If Brexiteers like…

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As the Brexit “deal” reaches another critical week the public are still totally split

As the Brexit “deal” reaches another critical week the public are still totally split

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What is Corbyn’s LAB going to do? With things apparently coming to the head with the EU withdrawal negotiations the above shows the latest YouGov tracker on how voters think broken down into what they did at the referendum and their current voting intention. This is the first time for months that this has been published on PB partly because the numbers almost never change or only very by very small amounts. As can be seen the main figure continues…

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Richard Ojeda – my 250/1 longshot to take on the draft-dodging incumbent

Richard Ojeda – my 250/1 longshot to take on the draft-dodging incumbent

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N9lWuZ7f-oA&feature=youtu.be Yesterday one of the midterm contenders who received a lot of publicity during the campaign, Richard Ojeda, announced that he was running for the presidency and published his first campaign video, see above. He was fighting last Tuesday in a congressional district in West Virginia that had been won by Trump by a margin of 49% at WH2016. He ended up just 14% behind the Republican victor an improvement of 35 points. Given the likely nature of the White…

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We could be heading for crossover in the “UK to leave EU on Mar 29th 2019” betting

We could be heading for crossover in the “UK to leave EU on Mar 29th 2019” betting

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Chart Betdata.io It’s now 54-46 The above betting market is one of the most active at the moment and as can be seen there’s a growing sense that the UK might not leave the EU on March 29th 2019 as planned and laid down in the Article 50 process. A lot of this represents the current political reaction to the latest state of negotiations and the talk of a possible second referendum. There’s also the Brexit court case in Scotland….

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Trump slips in the WH2020 betting after his party’s midterms performance

Trump slips in the WH2020 betting after his party’s midterms performance

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Betdate.io It is now the nearly week since the US midterm elections and still we have to wait for a final outcome. There are two big state results to be completed both of which are on a knife edge. There is a strong argument for saying that the midterm performances 2 years before a presidential election are not a good pointer to the outcome. There are certainly a number of precedents to support that position. What makes the 2018 elections…

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