Trump’s approval now ratings far worse far worse than at the midterms when the Dems gained 41 house seats

Trump’s approval now ratings far worse far worse than at the midterms when the Dems gained 41 house seats

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RealClearPolitics The big political polling numbers that get most attention in US politics are the President’s approval ratings and these are seen to be good predictors of electoral outcome. Thus the 10% approval deficit that Trump had ahead of the November midterms was enough for pundits to predict that the Republicans would lose the House by some margin. That is what happened. Since then we’ve had the government shutdown when 800k federal employees went without pay for nearly 5 weeks,…

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The battle between LAB & CON viewed through the perspective of their leaders’ approval ratings since GE2017

The battle between LAB & CON viewed through the perspective of their leaders’ approval ratings since GE2017

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I have been meaning to compile this for sometime – how Corbyn and May compare with each other month by month based on the Opinium leader approval ratings. The pollster is the only one that asks this question in every survey it does for the Observer though the figures often don’t get reported. Corbyn was doing better than the Tory leader until after March 2018, the month that saw his response to the Salisbury attack and the anti-LAB anti semitism…

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I’m not convinced the Tories are going to let TMay fight a second general election as party leader and PM

I’m not convinced the Tories are going to let TMay fight a second general election as party leader and PM

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Betfair exchange betting price from Betdata.io The betting barely moves in spite of the speculation Sundays are usually my day off and am only now catching up with the speculation over the weekend of an early election. The idea is to find a means of getting away from the Brexit deadlock and a different composition of the House of Commons would help. Clearly the problem is that it’s hard to see anything relating to Brexit commanding a majority of MPs….

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The January 29th 2019 amendments and the extension rumours

The January 29th 2019 amendments and the extension rumours

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BACKGROUND Earlier in January Parliament debated a deal with the European Union. The deal was formally known as the “Withdrawal Agreement”[15] and Parliament subjected it to a vote referred to as the “Meaningful Vote”, which was lost 432 to 202.[16] Subsequently seven amendments were scheduled for debate on January 29.[18][17] Five of those amendments failed but two amendments were passed.[17] One of the failed amendments was “amendment B”, better known as the Cooper amendment. It would have provided time to…

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Trump seems to be alienating an awful lot of voters

Trump seems to be alienating an awful lot of voters

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Trump is energising his opponents in record breaking numbers 538 write With the 2020 election cycle revving into full gear, pollsters are asking voters whether they plan to vote for President Trump. In a Washington Post/ABC News survey, respondents were asked if they would definitely vote for the president, consider voting for him or definitely not vote for him — and 56 percent said they would definitely not vote for him. Morning Consult posed a slightly different form of this question, asking voters if they’d definitely…

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A shock poll from Opinium sees the Tories move to a 7% lead

A shock poll from Opinium sees the Tories move to a 7% lead

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CON now 7% ahead of LAB with Opinium for the ObserverLAB 34 (-6) CON 41 (+4)LD 8 (+1) UKIP 7 (-) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2019 LAB/Corbyn appear to be paying the price for Brexit ambiguity. Tonight's Opinium poll with a CON 7% lead finds that for the first time in since GE2017 less than half of referendum remain voters (49%) would opt for LAB. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2019 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Gove still heading the TMay successor betting as we get closer to the Article 50 deadline

Gove still heading the TMay successor betting as we get closer to the Article 50 deadline

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Betdata.io But it really could be just about anyone David Herdson’s header this morning about the LAB leadership is a reminder that we haven’t looked at the TMay successor betting for some time. Given that a 2019 Conservative leadership contest is much more likely than a LAB one then we should really keep an eye on it. The chart shows the extraordinary rise in early January of Michael Gove who has now established himself with a solid lead, in the…

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Labour’s Next Leader: Dawn Butler at 100/1?

Labour’s Next Leader: Dawn Butler at 100/1?

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We need to learn the lessons of Corbyn’s wins Identifying Labour’s future leaders used to be a relatively easy job, certainly when compared against the Tories. Gaitskell, Wilson, Callaghan, Smith and Brown were all clearly identifiable as strong contenders five years or more before they took on the job. Blair, at that same distance, could have been seen (rightly, as it turned out), as a future potential leader but not the next one. Kinnock and Ed Miliband were a little…

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