TMay’s great current strength is that there’s little conviction that anyone else could do better
So another day of Theresa May’s leadership begins and no doubt she will be under pressure yet again by her party and maybe even the official opposition about her stance and approach to Brexit. Later she’s facing the Conservative backbench 1922 committee of which there was some overblown talk over the weekend off this being a “show trial.” That of itself illustrated the schism within the party. Well the rhetoric has been toned down a fair bit and the PM…
On the eve of TMay’s meeting with her MPs punters make it a 21% chance they she’ll be out this year
And Javid remains favourite to succeed her The Betfair Exchange price charts are as ever from Betdata.io Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
LAB would struggle to win a snap election with 50% of GE2017 LAB voters not rating Corbyn as “best PM”
His 50% LAB voter rating compares with 80% of GE2017 Tories for May While all the focus this week has been on TMay’s chances of survival the PM and her party can take comfort in the latest “Best PM” ratings from YouGov in which those polled are given just two options – her and Corbyn. In recent weeks TMay has been regaining her position and is now up from a low of 31% overall naming her to 38%. Corbyn is…
The new regime at the Daily Mail is going to make it make it harder to oust TMay
The Mail turns its fire on the Tory plotters who are trying to oust TMay pic.twitter.com/0EFC8l78w3 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 22, 2018 Now the plotters are being dubbed the “peacocking saboteurs” One of the most important things that happened to British politics this autumn was the change of editors at the Daily Mail. Hardline brexiteer, Sir Paul Dacre, is no longer in the post which is now held by pro-Remain, Geordie Greig. In my post on the ending of…
Trump’s massive midterms gamble has been to make it about himself. Now he needs to beat expectations
Two weeks to go and Trump intensifies his campaigning We are now into the final fortnight of the crucial US midterm elections and the question is whether the Republicans can hold on to both parts of Congress. Certainly the Senate looks pretty strong because of the races that are up this year but holding the House of Representatives is going to be a huge challenge. Congressional generic polls have the Democrats with an average margin of 7.7% and individual local…
In contrast to new reports of a TMay confidence move YouGov give her the highest best PM rating since early June
Boost for the PM while the plotters plot This is getting so tiresome in sharp contrast to the PMs recovering poll ratings. It seems like every week at the moment hardline CON Brexiteers are briefing journos that they are very near to getting the 48 letters from MPs demanding a TMay conference vote. The fact that this hasn’t happened shows the weakness of those who want to get rid of her. For the vote to take place is one thing…
A Nation once again? – Part 3 lessons from abroad
In the final of three articles Alanbrooke looks at Irish affairs There are numerous examples of states being put together in modern times. The closest and probably most studied is Germany. It is almost at 30 years since the wall came down so there is quite a period to look at. The situation is also not that dissimilar to Ireland – a larger more prosperous neighbour takes over its sizeable but smaller struggling neighbour. How has Germany fared? Unity is…