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Disastrously successful. The EU’s Brexit negotiation

26/1/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hn1VxaMEjRU I’m going to go all Godwin on you. Sorry. When people talk about the causes of World War Two, they often mention how Hitler was emboldened by his early success remilitarising the Rhineland without any real consequence, showing that the Treaty of Versailles was violable. This was not, however, the first occasion on which the settlement of the First World War was set aside by the losers. At 100 years’ distance, Germany was the loser of the First World…

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Trump facing right-wing backlash for caving in on the shut down

26/1/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Suddenly Trump finds himself under attack from those his loudest backers. Coulter blasts Trump over shutdown deal: 'Biggest wimp ever to serve as president' | TheHill https://t.co/TPOXnHh9tA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 26, 2019 Yesterday has raised doubts over his WH2020 bid My biggest long-term bet for a long time has been that Trump will will not be his party’s nominee at WH2020. This has been my Mueller collusion probe bet on the basis that at some stage there’d be…

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Coming to a Brexit near you: Rejoin

26/1/2019 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

Britain leaving the EU will close a chapter, not the book Whether the UK leaves the EU is still just about a question of ‘if’ as well as (or instead of) ‘when’, although of course ‘if’, being open-ended, isn’t of itself very meaningful. Suffice to say that the not-very-liquid Betfair market on Brexit date has ‘not before 2022’ at 4.2 – or, in percentage terms, a 24% chance. This is now slightly shorter than the 4.4 best price on 2019Q1:…

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Nancy Pelosi 1 Donald Trump 0

25/1/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Donald Trump has just announced that the Government shutdown is over. This means that the 800k government workers who have not been paid since before Christmas will now be paid. He’s agreed a 3 week period and is clearly hoping that he can get agreement on the funding of his wall. This comes on the day that the shutdown was starting to impact seriously on US civil flights with New York’s Le Guardia airport amongst others being affected. The shutdown…

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FBI officers in Florida make pre-dawn raid to arrest Trump associate Roger Stone

25/1/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

“FBI. Open the door.” Watch exclusive CNN footage of the FBI arresting longtime Trump associate Roger Stone. Stone has been indicted by a grand jury on charges brought by special counsel Robert Mueller. https://t.co/IWQToxEDhG pic.twitter.com/qXDtpL8pjN — New Day (@NewDay) January 25, 2019 This is all getting very close to the President The big news this lunchtime which could have big implications for WH2020 and Donald Trump is that his long-standing associate, Roger Stone, has been arrested by the FBI in…

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Chancellor Hammond is right: extending the Article 50 deadline won’t produce a Brexit compromise

25/1/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Hammond this morning on Bloomberg says "there is clearly no majority in Parliament" for a 2nd referendum. Says delaying article 50 would remove the "ticking clock"; "If you take that away, people will keep promoting their preferred outcome rather than seeking compromise" — Tamara Cohen (@tamcohen) January 25, 2019 And why for some No deal is so appealing Good by @TomKibasi from Tues on why no-deal Brexit is so attractive https://t.co/f1OLa7znVd pic.twitter.com/8izswk4wNN — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) January 25, 2019 Mike…

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Corbyn’s reported negativity on a second referendum sends the betting odds down to a 29% chance

24/1/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Brexit betting round-up Betting continues to be running at a high level on all aspects relating to Brexit. Mostly of the markets have stayed pretty consistent over the past few days days. The only one to buck this trend has been the second referendum betting. The chart shows how this is shifted down and this and, undoubtedly, has been affected by the latest reported positioning of Mr Corbyn about what Labour would or would not do. However much the polls…

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Meanwhile in other news

24/1/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

More than 175,000 jobs will be lost from struggling high street stores over the next year as the boom in internet shopping hastens their decline, researchers predict https://t.co/NvhwLmDTW3 — The Times and The Sunday Times (@thetimes) January 22, 2019 What’s happening on the High Street & other developments This month, the newspapers, television, radio and social media have been consumed by Brexit. You might have noticed. In other news, Marks & Spencer have announced the closure of another 17 branches….

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