Their muddled thinking has killed their project To be wrong once is inevitable, to be wrong twice is unfortunate, to be wrong three times is careless, but to be wrong as many times as Change UK have been is to show all the tactical and strategic awareness of a garden leaf trying to outwit a playful cat. It’s not merely that they keep losing the game; it’s not even that they don’t seem to know how the game’s played; it’s…
Wikipedia Over the last couple of days there been the first post local elections polls on the May 23rd Euro elections. As can be seen in the Wikipedia table the Brexit party is staying pretty stable in pole position with the Labour Party about 3% behind and the Tories much further down. In fact the latest Opinium poll has the Tories on 14% with the Lib Dems up 5 on 12%. It was always going to be, though, that the…
Lots of talk over the past 24 hours about the Lib Dem slogan on one of its leaflets for the European parliament election campaign. Clearly the word “bollocks” is one that is on the very margins of what is acceptable in polite society but it does get home the message well. Also “Bollocks to Brexit” has the added advantage of alliteration and it is very clear where the party stands. This in sharp contrast to Corbyn’s LAB which is hamstrung…
The Polling Matters podcast returns! Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look back at the local election results and look at what the EU election polling tells us about what is to come. Listen to the podcast here: Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @LeoBarasi Tweet
Given the precarious a position TMay is in at the moment we have to assume that we are fairly close to a CON leadership contest when the membership will choose not just a new party leader but of course the next PM. Last week Rory Stewart announced that he would contest the leadership once a vacancy occurs and today another prominent figure, Esther McVey, has declared that she too will be amongst the contenders. The former TV presenter, now MP…
Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange Leaving in the July-Dec 2019 period remains favourite but only a 38% one With two weeks to go before the Euro elections I thought it useful to look at the betting on where Brexit stands at and the market featured is on when it will happen if at all. This might be wishful thinking on the part of those who wish Brexit won’t ever happen but the betting price on the Brexit…
Whenever her detractors think she’s in a corner she always manages to play for time So another day and another key confrontation for TMay over when she is going to finally step down as CON leader and Prime Minister. Like all others such key moments, it seems, she has found a way to get a key decision deferred till next week or the week after with the result that the pressure for now is offloaded. This is wonderful to watch….
It is hard to recall now but a couple of months ago when the first betting markets were opened on what then seemed a only possible set of Euro elections in the UK LAB was made the odds-on favourites with the Brexit party on 4/1. Well that has all changed and it is hard to see anything other than Farage’s party heading for a notable victory on May 23rd. But which party will be in second place? On the face…